Kerry Wood in 2011 Or: Why You Should Never Pay Relievers

This morning, my friend (an unabashed Yankee fan) emailed me an article from today's NY Post, headlined "Perfect setup job by Yankees' Wood."

I replied, "In 2003, if you told me that Kerry Wood would be the Yankees' setup guy, that would have been the equivalent of saying you would have, I don't know, Barry Bonds, as your backup left fielder."

He came back with, "He is a FA and currently making $10 mill a year. Where do you see him, in what role, and at how much?"

Excellent question! ($1, Bill Simmons) Let's start with a quick list:

The highest-paid active relief pitchers, by average annual value (thanks, Cot's, though you should update the chart because Ryan is no longer active, to say nothing of Wagner and [ahem] Hoffman):

1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10)
2. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)
4. Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)
   
5. Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
6. Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
   
7. Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)
8. B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
9. Brian Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)
10. Trevor Hoffman, $8,000,000 (2010)
    
11. Jose Valverde, $7,000,000 (2010-11)
    
12. Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)
    
13. Trevor Hoffman, $6,000,000 (2009)
    Mike Gonzalez, $6,000,000 (2010-11)
    
14. Octavio Dotel, $5,500,000 (2008-09)
    Fernando Rodney, $5,500,000 (2010-11)

Wow... You look at that list and you see a bunch of guys who teams wish they weren't paying. K-rod? In jail. Nathan? BJ Ryan? Injured. Then there's the whole group of "closers-who-aren't-anymore" like Wood, Fuentes, Hoffman, Baez, Gonzalez, Dotel, and Rodney.

The *best* aggregate performance over the life of any of the above contracts was, of course, Mariano Rivera's, as he gave the Yankees 6.9 WAR for $45 million over his 3-year deal, or about $6.5 million per win. Trevor Hoffman's 2009 was a good deal for the Brewers, as he produced 1.5 WAR for $6 million, or $4 million per win. Unfortunately, the Brewers brought Hoffman back in 2010 at $8 million, and he proceeded to give back minus-0.6 WAR. Oops.

Ten of the 16 guys on that list are not worth the money they're paid. And that doesn't even count Brad Lidge, who was absolutely awful last season, or Billy Wagner, who was hurt for most of last year. A full 75% of these relievers were terrible signings. In 2008, when many of these contracts were signed, teams paid an average of about $4.5 million per win on the free agent market. Only Mariano and Hoffman (in 2009) were even close to that. Most expensive reliever contracts are busts, even for "great" closers.

Take Joe Nathan. At $11.75 million per year, the Twins pay him like he's a 2-win player. And he was exactly that, in 2008 and 2009. But, as we know, Nathan hasn't pitched at all in 2010. That drives his value down from 2 WAR/year to 1.333 WAR/year. So the Twins have paid $8.8 million over 3 years for each of Nathan's wins, instead of the $5.875 million they would have paid per win if Nathan had put up 2.0 WAR this season too.

Reliever (Yrs)	WAR	WAR/year	AAV	years	total $	total $/WAR
mariano (08-10)	6.9	2.30	$15.00	3	$45.00	$6.52
lidge (09-10)	-0.4	-0.20	$12.50	2	$25.00	-$62.50
k-rod (09-10)	1.7	0.85	$12.33	2	$24.67	$14.51
nathan (08-10)	4	1.33	$11.75	3	$35.25	$8.81
cordero (08-10)	2.7	0.90	$11.50	3	$34.50	$12.78
wagner (06-09)	5	1.67	$10.50	3	$31.50	$6.30
wood (09-10)	0.6	0.30	$10.25	2	$20.50	$34.17
ryan (06-10!)	1.8	0.36	$9.40	5	$47.00	$26.11
fuentes (09-10)	0.7	0.35	$8.75	2	$17.50	$25.00
hoffman (10)	-0.6	-0.60	$8.00	1	$8.00	-$13.33
valverde (10)	0.6	0.60	$7.00	1	$7.00	$11.67
baez (07-09)	-0.4	-0.13	$6.33	3	$19.00	-$47.50
hoffman (09)	1.5	1.50	$6.00	1	$6.00	$4.00
gonzalez (10)	0.7	0.70	$6.00	1	$6.00	$8.57
dotel (08-09)	0.7	0.35	$5.50	2	$11.00	$15.71
rodney (10)	0.3	0.30	$5.50	1	$5.50	$18.33

Combined, every reliever on that list, over the life of those contracts, produced 25.8 WAR. Teams paid these relievers a total of $343 million over 35 player-seasons, or $7.6 million a year. 25.8 wins divided by 36 seasons is 0.72 wins per year. Teams are paying $7.6 million a year for 0.72 wins a year? I respectfully suggest that -- aside from Jeff Francoeur -- closers are the worst investment in MLB, even accounting for their higher leverage appearances.

(And if you take out the singular Mariano's 6.9 wins, teams paid $298 million for 18.9 WAR, or $15.77 million per win. #Fail)

Back to my friend's query. What happens with Kerry Wood? If I'm a GM I stay far away from any reliever who wants more than $5 million a year. Yes, even Mariano going forward. Relievers get hurt. They flame out. They're flaky. Some are even violent, right Omar? It's folly to claim that any closer is worth $10 million a year. What will *some* GM pay Kerry Wood? I'm guessing about 2 years for $8 million a year, to be a closer. And that will be an awful contract the instant it is signed.