Mets Should Grab Sexson

With the news that the Mariners have finally cut Richie Sexson loose, one wonders whether he's going to catch on with another team. The AP article plays up the fact that Sexson is hitting just .218 in 2008, and struck out the second-most times in baseball since 2005 (behind Grady Sizemore, who's not getting released any time soon - and which shows that strikeouts are not necessarily the worst thing in the world for a batter).

The Mariners are on the hook for the remainder of Sexson's $14 million 2008 salary, so any team that picks him up will pay only the MLB minimum (~$500,000). It says here that this team should be the Mets.

What's that? you ask. Don't the Mets already have a weak first baseman "hitting" .246/.324/.448 (AVG/OBA/SLG)? Yes, Carlos Delgado has been awful this season. The Mets would not replace Delgado, only sit him when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw, against whom he's managed a Sexson-like 635 OPS this year (and only 739 over the last three seasons).

Right now, the Mets are carrying Chris Aguila and Nick Evans, two righty batters who are limited to first base or left field. Neither is much of a prospect. Aguila is 29 years old with a career 624 OPS. Evans is 22, and put up a nice 927 OPS in double-A Binghamton this year, but PECOTA predicted him to hit just .236/.302/.373 in the Show, so let's not get too excited. And neither has the elusive veteran goodness that could convince Mets brass to sit Delgado against lefties. That's where Sexson comes in.

Of course, about half the teams in baseball have a chance to pick Sexson off waivers before the Mets can, but few teams both have a need for the right side of a first base platoon and have such a weak bench that the signing makes sense.

The Mets are in win-now mode, so they should let Evans develop further in the minors and sign Sexson, who has hit.344/.423/.623 against lefties this season and .258/.374/.507 against southpaws over the last three seasons. Delgado is hitting.260/.353/.489 against righties this year, and.288/.386/.567 against righties over the last three seasons. Put those guys together, and you have a solid platoon that costs the Mets nothing.

Easy Schedule For Clemens So Far

Of the 5 current Yankee starters, here are their OPS against, courtesy of the Baseball Prospectus Pitchers' Quality of Batters Faced report:

Igawa - .755
Mussina - .755
Pettitte - .752
Wang - .751
Clemens - .750

Note that the AL has 84 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. Of these, the two highest OPS against are .776 (Tomo Ohka) followed by .773 (Roy Halladay). The two lowest OPS against are .732 (Erik Bedard) and .733 (Jeremy Guthrie). The median for pitchers who have thrown 50+ innings is .755.

In his ten starts this season, Clemens has faced the following teams (OPS rank in parens):

KC (24)
Tor (11)
TB (8)
LAA (14)
Min (19)
Bal (21)
SF (28)
Col (10)
NYM (13)
Pit (29)

Clemens has avoided the Tigers (first in team OPS), Indians (fifth) and Red Sox (fourth). His 3.72 ERA looks decent now, but with five series left against these top hitting teams, you should expect Clemens' ERA to rise from this point forward.

Great Work By Simmons

First, props to all bloggers who manage to regularly update their sites while working a tough job and managing a family. I haven't been up to the task.

And second, much credit to Bill Simmons, who nailed his ESPN column this week, taking the NBA to task for the suspension of two Phoenix Suns for tonight's playoff game against the Spurs. The Sports Guy's historical perspective on the "Don't Leave Your Bench" rule shows a deep understanding of the issues at play.

One such issue is the faux outrage/sorrow/interest that SportsCenter is forced to generate every news cycle. Whether the subject is John Amaechi, Josh Hancock, or basketball fights, ESPN makes it the lead story with multi-angle, multimedia coverage, then leaves it by the side of the road, used up and worthless. (When's the last time you saw a John Amaechi reference? When's the last time you saw it on an ESPN outlet?) And Simmons had the huevos to critique his bosses on their own website:

"Because there was a level of competitiveness back then that doesn't exist anymore -- it's been beaten out of these guys ... partly because the SportsCenter Era (where we show the same highlight six million times and pretend to be appalled) made the decision makers too skittish (to the degree that Carmelo Anthony was suspended for 15 games for slapping another player)."

What Simmons describes is a major reason I don't watch SportsCenter anymore, but the way he described it is a major reason I don't miss a single Sports Guy column. Keep up the good work.

Pelfrey Out, Sosa In?

With today's 11-5 drubbing at the hand of the weak-hitting Colorado Rockies (50% fewer home runs than Alex Rodriguez!), Omar Minaya must be tiring of the Mike Pelfrey experience. Pelfrey made the team despite getting lit up by the Devil Rays in his last Grapefruit League start (10 hits and 8 runs in 4 IP). Omar should have been on notice that Pelfrey wasn't fooling anyone, as he only struck out 5 in 23 spring innings.

Pelfrey has now failed to finish the sixth inning in any of his three starts, has walked more batters than he's struck out, and is sporting an awful ERA - 790 The Zone is the official radio station of the Atlanta Thrashers, not what you want out of your fifth starter. After a one year hiatus, the Mets find themselves again looking up at the Braves in the NL East standings, so it's time to make a move. The question is: Who takes Pelfrey's place?

A look at the Mets' 40-man roster gives us some candidates. Chan Ho Park, Phil Humber, Adam Bostick and Jason Vargas are all in the rotation at AAA New Orleans. Park is definitely not getting the call; he's performed as poorly as Pelfrey, but against minor leaguers. Humber's talent is undeniable. Baseball Prospectus ranked him the #26 prospect in all the land. He's posted a round 3.00 ERA in four starts, but I don't think Omar wants to go with another prospect to replace Pelfrey. Bostick isn't turning any heads except his own. He's allowed 3 home runs and 10 walks in only 16 innings. Vargas has pitched much better than that, with a 19:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a solid 3.42 ERA. He would be the obvious choice except for the sleeper: Jorge Sosa.

Sosa's line in four AAA starts this year? In 26 innings, 24 strikouts and only 4 walks. He's allowed but one home run, 23 hits and only 6 runs (4 earned, for an ERA of 1.38). The same day Minaya signed free agent Scott Schoeneweis and avoided arbitration with Endy Chavez and Ramon Castro, he inked Sosa to a one-year $1.25 million contract. On March 29th, the Mets outrighted Sosa to New Orleans, which means he cleared waivers and fell off the 40-man roster, but he's still making his major-league salary.

My hunch is that Chan Ho Park will be designated for assignment in the next few days, clearing out a roster spot for Sosa, who will make his Mets debut next week against Florida or Arizona.

Justifying Biggio

ESPN asking Rob Neyer to start a blog (Insider) has been terrific for baseball fans because it's resulted in much more Neyer than we've been getting the past few years. Today he questions the Astros' continued use of Craig Biggio as their starting second baseman and leadoff hitter. Neyer writes that the Astros want the public relations and attendance boost that comes with Biggio's quest for his 3,000th hit, but from a strict talent standpoint, Mark Loretta, Chris Burke and top prospect Hunter Pence should all be higher on the depth chart:

"I know the organization wants to see Biggio reach the magic number. I'd feel the same way, if I were running the franchise. But can you really sacrifice a shot at the World Series in the interest of one player's statistics?"

Posing the question that way might be unfair to Biggio, who's not in charge of making out each day's lineup card. The decision to pencil in the original "Killer B" is probably coming from higher up the corporate ladder than manager Phil Garner. That makes it more a business decision than a baseball one, so Neyer's question should be rephrased as follows: "Is the potential long-term windfall from a playoff appearance greater than the short-term boost the Astros will get from Biggio's milestone-chase?"

I'm reminded of a WSJ article from a couple weeks back titled "The Real Most Valuable Players." Russell Adams reported that several teams (in particular the Cleveland Indians) have been combining sabermetrics and economics to determine which players will most benefit the team's finances. Adams writes:

"It also raises the unsettling possibility that some teams might determine that it's financially in their best interest to be mediocre, not good, and definitely far from great. That's because by some calculations, the best balance of revenue and expenses isn't always compatible with greatness, nor winning with profitability."

Teams that are closer to playoff contention stand to benefit more from marginal improvements than lesser teams. But since the Astros really aren't on the playoff fence, baseball decisions made in furtherance of the Astros making the playoffs in 2007 are likely to be misguided from a financial standpoint. Though Houston is currently in second place in the NL Central with a 9-9 record, BP's adjusted standings (taking into account the components that make up all teams' hitting and pitching performance) has the team down in fifth place at 8-10. That puts Houston on pace for the 72-win season I predicted on Opening Day.

The fact that Biggio's only hitting .222 ends up being good for the Astros. His prolonged race to 3,000 hits will (hopefully) distract fans from the fact that the Astros are not very good. It might even keep attendance at high levels when it's clear the team is out of playoff contention. The extra revenue could enable the Astros to replace the retiring Biggio with a quality free-agent in the offseason - how about stealing Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs? Finishing lower in the standings would give them a higher draft pick if they don't sign a big money free agent. Better that they keep Pence in the minors for most of 2007, keeping him at a lower salary - and an extra year - when he's on the next good Astros team.

Bill Simmons wrote about NBA teams that understand the optimal strategy for a losing team is to lose some more. Too many teams were a little too blatant with their tanking that the second half of the NBA season was far from aestheically pleasing. But if the Astros lose this year with gusto while letting Biggio get to 3,000 and then get out, everyone in Houston might be better off in 2008.