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On The Leadership Aging Curve

2011-02-09T21:07:00.005-05:00

Joe Sheehan's got an excellent Newsletter issue today about Michael Young's trade demand and, more generally, about "leadership" in the abstract. If you're somehow reading this and aren't a Newsletter subscriber, you should remedy that now (preferably by subscribing and not by clicking away from this blog).

Joe writes:

The notion of Michael Young, Ranger Leader is more a media construct than anything else, as all of these things are, and it is in a time like this, when the player has to choose between self-interest and organizational interest, that we see just how silly the construct is.

***

Leadership, as much as reporters may say it is, isn't just about making yourself available for quotes, yet some large portion of getting the label of "leader" is that one act. The fact is, we don't know these guys, and after Jeter, after Gonzalez, after Young, maybe it's time we stopped imbuing them with traits they may or may not possess solely because we wish they had them.

Joe would be the first to tell you that it's impossible for an informed outsider such as himself to quantify a "leader's" contributions to his team beyond his observable hitting, fielding or pitching.

But to my thinking, maybe both views are wrong: the MSM's position that a player *is* a leader and Joe's view that players are self-interested and shouldn't apologize for it.

Maybe players' leadership follows a development curve not unlike what we see with baseball skills. You've got your young guys who come up brash and unready to lead. Then they transition into their peak leadership years: they've been big leaguers long enough to command respect from the media and their teammates. Then they enter their decline phase, when both their on- and off-field skills atrophy and they're eventually replaced.

Perhaps during those "peak leadership" years the interest of the player and team are neatly aligned. It's the player's best opportunity to have his personal skills contribute to the team's success, so he goes along to get along, hoping that he'll be part of a championship squad.

You sometimes hear about young leaders like a Jeter, or young malcontents like a pre-rehab Josh Hamilton or a Lastings Milledge, and you hear about the veteran problems you described in the NL. But guys like Milton Bradley -- quality players yet clubhouse cancers -- to me seem the exception not the rule.

Someone with more time on his hands could run a Google News search for players' names + "leader" (and player + problem) and graph the ages of the players cited. Still, I feel like leadership, like elite baseball ability, is a skill that develops, peaks and fades. Not unlike Michael Young's contributions to the Rangers over the years.

The A.L. East is Stacked

2011-01-22T10:49:00.003-05:00

Never have teams in baseball's other divisions been as happy to be there as 2011. The best free agent, Carl Crawford, signed with Boston. The Red Sox also acquired the best position player by trade, bringing in Adrian Gonzalez. The Rays just signed Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to complement a young team that won 96 games last season. The Blue Jays pulled off the unlikeliest heist of the hot stove league by ridding themselves of the worst contract in baseball -- even getting an underrated power-hitting catcher in return. And the Yankees? They'll still have MLB's highest payroll and a roster featuring at least three future hall of famers.

As I drifted off to sleep last night, I wondered which of these teams' rosters I would prefer. (Kudos to the Blue Jays for even entering the discussion.) Here's a quick and dirty analysis. Your mileage may vary, etc. Note that this ranking is all about expected performance. If we ranked these guys by wins expected per million in salary, the list would be completely different.

I'm going to rank each position for each team, with 1 being the best. Lowest score wins.

Catcher

Yankees - R.Martin/Posada (2)

Red Sox - Saltalamacchia/Varitek (4)

Rays - Jaso/Shoppach (3)

Blue Jays - Arencibia/Napoli (1)

Posada and Napoli will likely get more games at DH than behind the plate, but anytime you have a quality DH as your backup catcher, you're ahead of the game. I'll take the upside of Arencibia over the denouement of Russell Martin's career. I give the Rays a tiny bonus for acquiring Robinson Chirinos from the Cubs in the Garza trade; Chirinos can really hit and might be up soon. I know the Jays have Jose Molina on the roster, but my guess is that Molina joins Francisco Cervelli in the role of glorified bullpen catcher.

First Base

Yankees - Teixeira (2)

Red Sox - A.Gonzalez (1)

Rays - Zobrist (4)

Blue Jays - Lind (3)

Gonzalez and Teixeira are close, but I'll take the 29-year-old over the 31-year-old. As a Mets fan, I remember Mo Vaughn's rapid decent into suck far too well. Zobrist is a more valuable player than Lind because of his positional flexibility, but as a first baseman, where "hit" and "power" are the most important tools, I see Lind more likely to repeat his 2009 than Zobrist.

Second Base

Yankees - Cano (1)

Red Sox - Pedroia (2)

Rays - S.Rodriguez (4)

Blue Jays - A.Hill (3)

Cano put up hall of fame numbers the past two seasons. He's taken the mantle of "best AL second baseman" away from Pedroia, who will have to earn it back -- if he can. Hill seems to be alternating good years with bad (his pattern suggests 2011 will be a good one). Until Rodriguez plays a full season, I can't justify ranking him above Hill.

Shortstop

Yankees - Jeter (1)

Red Sox - Scutaro (3)

Rays - Brignac (4)

Blue Jays - Y.Escobar (2)

Again I'm ranking the Rays player last because we have yet to see what he can do over a 150 game season. Much was made of Escobar's trade to the Blue Jays. The statheads who predicted an improvement in AVG were proved right, though Escobar seemed to be the only Blue Jay who didn't slug .400 last season. Still, I'll take him over a 35-year-old Scutaro. You'll find folks who say that Jeter's 2010 proves he's done as a quality regular. They could be right, but if Jeter gets any bounceback in 2011, he'll be the best shortstop of this bunch.

Third Base

Yankees - A.Rodriguez (3)

Red Sox - Youkilis (2)

Rays - Longoria (1)

Blue Jays - Bautista (4)

Third base is a microcosm of the A.L. East: The Yanks are going with the expensive marquee name, the Rays with homegrown first-round talent, the Sox with a star who's underrated outside of New England and fantasy teams, and the Jays with a recent addition who outperformed expectations. Only in the A.L. East would last year's MLB home run leader be overshadowed by MLB's best young player, a first-ballot hall of famer, and a Greek god. Nobody really expects Bautista to put up the same line he did last year. Any regression puts him at the back of these rankings. Longoria was the best third baseman in baseball last year, and he's likely to improve at age 25. Youkilis is three years younger than A-Rod and has put up better numbers recently, so Youk takes the number 2 spot here.

Left Field

Yankees - Gardner (2)

Red Sox - Crawford (1)

Rays - Damon (3)

Blue Jays - J.Rivera (4)

Crawford is so much better than the other left fielders in this group that the rankings don't do him justice. Like Crawford, Gardner gets plenty of value from his outfield play. Unlike Crawford, Gardner may be underrated. Damon is on his third A.L. East team, but at this point he's a severe defensive liability. Rivera is the worst starter on any of these teams.

Center Field

Yankees - Granderson (2)

Red Sox - Ellsbury (3)

Rays - BJ Upton (1)

Blue Jays - R.Davis (4)

Yankee fans are trying to convince themselves that Granderson's early-2010 injury resulted in sub-par numbers. But Granderson's 2010 OPS+ was actually higher than his 2009 number, and in line with his career numbers. what you saw in '07 and '08 was his peak, and likely won't be repeated. The MSM wants to label BJ Upton a bust, though as @r_j_anderson never tires of pointing out, Upton is an excellent player with room to improve. Ellsbury was moved off CF last year and needs a comeback season there to reestablish his value. Rajai Davis was another nifty pickup by the Jays; for the money he's a great stopgap option. As an aside, Vernon Wells would rank third over Ellsbury, but then again we're not taking Wells' $21 million salary into account.

Right Field

Yankees - Swisher (1)

Red Sox - JD Drew (2)

Rays - Joyce (4)

Blue Jays - Snider (3)

Matt Joyce is another of the Rays' high-expectations, low-experience players. The variance on his 2010 numbers is very high. Same with Snider, who prospect mavens have loved for years, but who has yet to put together a full season of quality play. Looking at Drew and Swisher, the lower limit of their expected performance is probably the 70th-percentile projection for Snider and Joyce. Thus they get higher ranks. Swisher edges out Drew based on durability alone.

Designated Hitter

Yankees - Posada/A.Jones (3)

Red Sox - Ortiz (1)

Rays - M.Ramirez (2)

Blue Jays - Napoli/[to come?] (4)

With the money freed up by Vernon Wells's departure, I could see the Jays signing a left-handed DH type like Russell Branyon to DH when Napoli moves behind the plate. Napoli's value -- or Posada's, during his career -- stems from their hitting ability coupled with an ability to play behind the plate. To put it another way, these guys are amazing hitters for catchers, but are only serviceable as designated hitters. So the real DHs, guys like Ortiz and Manny, rank 1-2 by default. I'm not sure Andruw Jones has much more in the tank, but he's a better backup DH than anyone the Jays have on the roster.

Starting Rotation

Yankees - Sabathia/Hughes/Burnett/Nova/Mitre/[Prior?] (4)

Red Sox - Lester/Beckett/Lackey/Buchholz/Matsuzaka/[Wakefield] (1)

Rays - Price/Shields/W.Davis/Niemann/Hellickson/[Sonnanstine] (2)

Blue Jays - Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Rzepczynski/Drabek/[Villanueva] (3)

For the second time, the Red Sox's domination of a category is minimized by a simplistic 1-4 ranking, especially when considering the necessary "sixth starter." Here's a chart, presented without commentary, ranking each team's starting pitchers (yes, I have Davis and Romero tied):

Yankees rank Red Sox rank Rays rank Blue Jays rank

SP1 Sabathia 2 Lester 1 Price 3 Romero 4

SP2 Hughes 2 Beckett 1 Shields 3 Morrow 4

SP3 Burnett 4 Lackey 1 W.Davis 2 Cecil 2

SP4 Nova 4 Buchholz 1 Niemann 2 Rzepczynski 3

SP5 Mitre 4 Matsuzaka 3 Hellickson 2 Drabek 1

SP6 Mark Prior? 4 Wakefield 1 Sonnanstine 2 C.Villanueva 3

Closer

Yankees - Rivera (1)

Red Sox - Papelbon (2)

Rays - Farnsworth (3)

Blue Jays - Dotel (4)

The bullpen, more than any other spot on these rosters, shows the difference in these teams' budgets. The Yanks and Sox go with "proven" and expensive veterans, while the Rays and Jays will mix and match. It's telling that New York's setup guy was Tampa's closer last year and is now making more than Tampa's entire pen. Rivera will remain the top-rated Cyborg Closer until he returns to his home planet. Papelbon is more expensive than great, but he has a better performance record than Farnsworth and Dotel.

Setup

Yankees - R.Soriano (1)

Red Sox - Jenks (2)

Rays - J.Peralta (4)

Blue Jays - Rauch (3)

I've broken out setup guys from the rest of the bullpen to emphasize the point about cash and bullpen construction. Soriano and Jenks are tier-one free agent pickups, while Rauch and Peralta are second- and third-tier, respectively. As he proved last year, Soriano is an elite bullpen arm when healthy. Jenks' 2010 ERA did not match his underlying K/BB/HR rates, which have been consistently good since he became a relief ace. Rauch is a Proven C closer with stuff usually associated with a middle reliever, though he has a more consistent history than Peralta, a former Royal and National.

Bullpen

Yankees - Chamberlain/Feliciano/Robertson (3)

Red Sox - Bard/Okajima/Wheeler (1)

Rays - McGee/A.Russell/Hayhurst (4)

Blue Jays - Frasor/Purcey/Janssen (2)

Middle relief is where name recognition goes to die. At least it does for teams with lower payrolls. Yet the Rays and Blue Jays have produced quality bullpens year after year, a testament to their field managers as much as to their GMs. Both teams have significantly shuffled their 'pens due to free agency, but the Toronto group at least has some proven replacements. Tampa's relying on a stud prospect and various Mr. Potato Head parts, including the author of the best inside-baseball book since Ball Four. Boston's bullpen features three guys who could be closers on lesser teams. The Yankees' pen has produced more headlines than strikeouts -- and suggestions that Joba be jerked back into the rotation from his spot in middle relief.

So what have we got? Totaling up the rankings shows us, unsurprisingly, that Boston should be the best team in the division:

Boston - 34

New York - 48

Tampa Bay - 51

Toronto - 56

What have we learned from this exercise?

- Boston is so good at so many positions. They have until July to figure out if their patchwork catching platoon -- the team's only apparent soft spot -- will suffice on a championship-level squad.

- The Yankees' clear weakness is in the starting rotation. Rumors that they're interested in Kevin Millwood, if true, would go a long way toward helping. I'd rank Millwood as far worse than Buchholz, but better than Niemann or Rzepczynski.

- Tampa Bay, while supposedly "reloading" after losing three 10-figure free agents, holds a roster than is nearly as good as the $200 million Yankees.

- Toronto has assembled an impressive roster of homegrown youngsters and other teams' castoffs. They'll be competitive in 2011 but could be a monster in 2012 and beyond. The Blue Jays are now both literally and figuratively in the A.L. East's league.

Kerry Wood in 2011 Or: Why You Should Never Pay Relievers

2010-10-08T10:31:00.009-04:00

This morning, my friend (an unabashed Yankee fan) emailed me an article from today's NY Post, headlined "Perfect setup job by Yankees' Wood."

I replied, "In 2003, if you told me that Kerry Wood would be the Yankees' setup guy, that would have been the equivalent of saying you would have, I don't know, Barry Bonds, as your backup left fielder."

He came back with, "He is a FA and currently making $10 mill a year. Where do you see him, in what role, and at how much?"

Excellent question! ($1, Bill Simmons) Let's start with a quick list:

The highest-paid active relief pitchers, by average annual value (thanks, Cot's, though you should update the chart because Ryan is no longer active, to say nothing of Wagner and [ahem] Hoffman):

Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10)
Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)
Joe Nathan, $11,750,000 (2008-11)
Francisco Cordero, $11,500,000 (2008-11)
Billy Wagner, $10,750,000 (2006-09)
Kerry Wood, $10,250,000 (2009-10)
B.J. Ryan, $9,400,000 (2006-10)
Brian Fuentes, $8,750,000 (2009-10)
Trevor Hoffman, $8,000,000 (2010)
Jose Valverde, $7,000,000 (2010-11)
Danys Baez, $6,333,333 (2007-09)
Trevor Hoffman, $6,000,000 (2009)
Mike Gonzalez, $6,000,000 (2010-11)
Octavio Dotel, $5,500,000 (2008-09)
Fernando Rodney, $5,500,000 (2010-11)

Wow... You look at that list and you see a bunch of guys who teams wish they weren't paying. K-rod? In jail. Nathan? BJ Ryan? Injured. Then there's the whole group of "closers-who-aren't-anymore" like Wood, Fuentes, Hoffman, Baez, Gonzalez, Dotel, and Rodney.

The *best* aggregate performance over the life of any of the above contracts was, of course, Mariano Rivera's, as he gave the Yankees 6.9 WAR for $45 million over his 3-year deal, or about $6.5 million per win. Trevor Hoffman's 2009 was a good deal for the Brewers, as he produced 1.5 WAR for $6 million, or $4 million per win. Unfortunately, the Brewers brought Hoffman back in 2010 at $8 million, and he proceeded to give back minus-0.6 WAR. Oops.

Ten of the 16 guys on that list are not worth the money they're paid. And that doesn't even count Brad Lidge, who was absolutely awful last season, or Billy Wagner, who was hurt for most of last year. A full 75% of these relievers were terrible signings. In 2008, when many of these contracts were signed, teams paid an average of about $4.5 million per win on the free agent market. Only Mariano and Hoffman (in 2009) were even close to that. Most expensive reliever contracts are busts, even for "great" closers.

Take Joe Nathan. At $11.75 million per year, the Twins pay him like he's a 2-win player. And he was exactly that, in 2008 and 2009. But, as we know, Nathan hasn't pitched at all in 2010. That drives his value down from 2 WAR/year to 1.333 WAR/year. So the Twins have paid $8.8 million over 3 years for each of Nathan's wins, instead of the $5.875 million they would have paid per win if Nathan had put up 2.0 WAR this season too.

Reliever (Yrs)	WAR	WAR/year	AAV	years	total $	total $/WAR
mariano (08-10)	6.9	2.30	$15.00	3	$45.00	$6.52
lidge (09-10)	-0.4	-0.20	$12.50	2	$25.00	-$62.50
k-rod (09-10)	1.7	0.85	$12.33	2	$24.67	$14.51
nathan (08-10)	4	1.33	$11.75	3	$35.25	$8.81
cordero (08-10)	2.7	0.90	$11.50	3	$34.50	$12.78
wagner (06-09)	5	1.67	$10.50	3	$31.50	$6.30
wood (09-10)	0.6	0.30	$10.25	2	$20.50	$34.17
ryan (06-10!)	1.8	0.36	$9.40	5	$47.00	$26.11
fuentes (09-10)	0.7	0.35	$8.75	2	$17.50	$25.00
hoffman (10)	-0.6	-0.60	$8.00	1	$8.00	-$13.33
valverde (10)	0.6	0.60	$7.00	1	$7.00	$11.67
baez (07-09)	-0.4	-0.13	$6.33	3	$19.00	-$47.50
hoffman (09)	1.5	1.50	$6.00	1	$6.00	$4.00
gonzalez (10)	0.7	0.70	$6.00	1	$6.00	$8.57
dotel (08-09)	0.7	0.35	$5.50	2	$11.00	$15.71
rodney (10)	0.3	0.30	$5.50	1	$5.50	$18.33

Combined, every reliever on that list, over the life of those contracts, produced 25.8 WAR. Teams paid these relievers a total of $343 million over 35 player-seasons, or $7.6 million a year. 25.8 wins divided by 36 seasons is 0.72 wins per year. Teams are paying $7.6 million a year for 0.72 wins a year? I respectfully suggest that -- aside from Jeff Francoeur -- closers are the worst investment in MLB, even accounting for their higher leverage appearances.

(And if you take out the singular Mariano's 6.9 wins, teams paid $298 million for 18.9 WAR, or $15.77 million per win. #Fail)

Back to my friend's query. What happens with Kerry Wood? If I'm a GM I stay far away from any reliever who wants more than $5 million a year. Yes, even Mariano going forward. Relievers get hurt. They flame out. They're flaky. Some are even violent, right Omar? It's folly to claim that any closer is worth $10 million a year. What will *some* GM pay Kerry Wood? I'm guessing about 2 years for $8 million a year, to be a closer. And that will be an awful contract the instant it is signed.

The All-Roy Team

2010-08-10T13:14:00.009-04:00

We're nearly two weeks into the Two Roy era in Philly. I'm frankly shocked that nobody who a Google search turned up has put together the MLB All-Roy Team. (Apologies to Cistulli's All-Joy Team.)

One look at the All-Roy team explains why Phillies GM Ruben Amaro traded away Cliff Lee so he could later employ Roy Oswalt. As befits the high-level analysis permeating today's MLB, here is the statistically significant takeaway from today's post: The last team to employ two Roys on the same roster won the World Series.

To be fair, this team does not consider any of the prestigious Royces such as Clayton, Ring, and, of course, Lint. Without further ado, let's start with the pitching staff since it inspired this post.

SP1: Roy Halladay
A sure-fire Hall-of-Famer if he retired today, Halladay finished first or second in AL pitcher Wins Above Replacement in six of the last eight years. His NL 2010 is on pace to make it seven of the last nine. Halladay's first name fits him well. The name "Roy" originated as a nickname for someone with red hair or a reddish complexion.

SP2: Roy Oswalt
Oswalt's numbers suffer in comparison to Halladay's, but the long-time Astro finished in the top-five of Cy Young voting five of his first six years in the majors. His reputation would benefit from a strong second-half performance that propels the Phillies into the playoffs.

SP3: Roy Smith
Smith earned a World Series ring by pitching 16 innings for the 1987 Twins, although he saw no postseason action. He picked up a win in his only start that year. The native of Mt. Vernon, NY (birthplace of Denzel Washington and former home of the author) started 49 games for the Twins in 1989 and 1990. But an ERA+ of 96 in those two seasons foreshadowed that he'd be out of the league after he put up a 5.60 ERA for Baltimore in 1991.

SP4: Roy Patterson
"Boy Wonder" pitched for the White Sox during the dead-ball era. How dead was the dead-ball era? Patterson's 2.63 ERA in 1907 signaled his demise, as it was seven percent worse than league average. According to the Baby Name Wizard, "Roy" peaked as a boy's name in the 1890s, when it was the 19th most-popular name.

CL: Roy Face
Face was a diminutive (5'8") righty and one of the first to use the forkball. He didn't reach the majors to stay until age 27, but he dominated for more than a decade out of the Pirates' bullpen in the '50s and '60s. Fun With Useless Stats: Face was 18-1 as a reliever in 1959.

RP: Roy Jackson
Jackson's best year came for the 1982 Blue Jays, when he threw 97 innings, striking out 71 and walking 31 over 46 relief appearances and two starts. He appeared in 280 games, only 18 of them as a starting pitcher, in his 10-year big league career.

RP: Roy Corcoran
Included more for his having pitched recently than for pitching well, Corcoran put up a 3.22 ERA for the 2008 Mariners, which masked an unhealthy 39/36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In '09 he got lit up to the tune of a 6.16 ERA with 17 walks in 19 IP. Now 30 years old, he's struggling in Triple-A for the Astros.

C: Roy Campanella
An 8-time All-Star and 3-time MVP, Campanella debuted with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1948, one year after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1969.

1B: Roy (Squirrel!) Sievers
Sievers led the American League with 42 homers and 331 total bases for the 1957 Washington Senators, a team that also featured .167-hitting center fielder Dorrel Norman Elvert (Whitey) Herzog. That team must have spent all its energy coining nicknames because they lost 99 of 154 games.

2B: Roy Smalley
The second Roy on the 1987 World Champion Twins, Smalley played all over the infield like a mid-'80s Omar Infante. Sorry: "All-Star Omar Infante." And like Infante, Smalley was a one-time All-Star, when he hit .341/.424/.535 the first half of 1979.

SS: Roy McMillan
Your prototypical all-field, no hit shortstop, mostly for the 1950s Reds. McMillan played 16 seasons in the big leagues despite a career OPS+ of 72. His glove was thought of so highly that he received down-ballot MVP recognition in seasons he posted OBPs of .306, .308 and .305. McMillan knew how to take a walk but just couldn't hit for average: he averaged 51 bases-on-balls per 592 plate appearances.

3B: Roy Howell
The 4th pick of the 1972 draft, Howell got a cup of coffee in September 1974 with the Texas Rangers as a 20-year-old third baseman. Over the next two years he provided league-average offense but not much in the way of glovework (49 errors in 245 games). After starting the 1977 season 0-for-17 (with 2 walks!), Texas traded Howell to Toronto, where he hit .302/.374/.430 the rest of the way. Howell made his only All-Star Team in 1978 with a .298 first-half batting average. He would go on to play 11 MLB seasons, retiring at age 30 with a career .261/.321/.389 line.

LF: Roy White
White peaked just before the late George Steinbrenner brought Catfish and Reggie on board. White's age-24 to -32 seasons produced a solid .278/.370/.418 line. Then White became an ice cube in the drink stirred by Jackson's straw. When the Yankees won the World Series in 1977, White produced a 109 OPS+ as a 33-year-old left fielder. The following year White became more of a utility guy behind Lou Piniella as the Yanks repeated. He was out of baseball by 1980.

CF: Roy Thomas
Another Roy from the deadball era, Thomas led the National League in walks for the Phillies seven times from 1900 to 1907. More deadball fun: Thomas' career OBP (.413) was 80 points higher than his career SLG.

RF: Roy Cullenbine
Cullenbine played for six teams in ten MLB seasons, including the St. Louis Browns, Washington Senators, and Brooklyn Dodgers. Like Roy Thomas, Cullenbine liked to take a walk. His 1941 OBP (.452) was second in the AL to some guy named Ted Williams.

So that's the All-Roy Team. In case you're disappointed at the paucity of modern Roys on the squad, take heart: The Mets have a 24-year-old southpaw at Triple-A named Roy Merritt. He's been a decent reliever this year, with a 3.22 FIP over 80 innings. He may have a future as a LOOGY given his 8.9 K/9 and zero home runs allowed against lefties this season. If the Mets can get Merritt to the bigs and get Ike Davis to change his name to Roy...

Mets Should Grab Sexson

2008-07-10T16:32:00.007-04:00

With the news that the Mariners have finally cut Richie Sexson loose, one wonders whether he's going to catch on with another team. The AP article plays up the fact that Sexson is hitting just .218 in 2008, and struck out the second-most times in baseball since 2005 (behind Grady Sizemore, who's not getting released any time soon - and which shows that strikeouts are not necessarily the worst thing in the world for a batter).

The Mariners are on the hook for the remainder of Sexson's $14 million 2008 salary, so any team that picks him up will pay only the MLB minimum (~$500,000). It says here that this team should be the Mets.

What's that? you ask. Don't the Mets already have a weak first baseman "hitting" .246/.324/.448 (AVG/OBA/SLG)? Yes, Carlos Delgado has been awful this season. The Mets would not replace Delgado, only sit him when the opposing pitcher is a southpaw, against whom he's managed a Sexson-like 635 OPS this year (and only 739 over the last three seasons).

Right now, the Mets are carrying Chris Aguila and Nick Evans, two righty batters who are limited to first base or left field. Neither is much of a prospect. Aguila is 29 years old with a career 624 OPS. Evans is 22, and put up a nice 927 OPS in double-A Binghamton this year, but PECOTA predicted him to hit just .236/.302/.373 in the Show, so let's not get too excited. And neither has the elusive veteran goodness that could convince Mets brass to sit Delgado against lefties. That's where Sexson comes in.

Of course, about half the teams in baseball have a chance to pick Sexson off waivers before the Mets can, but few teams both have a need for the right side of a first base platoon and have such a weak bench that the signing makes sense.

The Mets are in win-now mode, so they should let Evans develop further in the minors and sign Sexson, who has hit.344/.423/.623 against lefties this season and .258/.374/.507 against southpaws over the last three seasons. Delgado is hitting.260/.353/.489 against righties this year, and.288/.386/.567 against righties over the last three seasons. Put those guys together, and you have a solid platoon that costs the Mets nothing.

Easy Schedule For Clemens So Far

2007-07-24T14:30:00.000-04:00

Of the 5 current Yankee starters, here are their OPS against, courtesy of the Baseball Prospectus Pitchers' Quality of Batters Faced report:

Igawa - .755
Mussina - .755
Pettitte - .752
Wang - .751
Clemens - .750

Note that the AL has 84 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings. Of these, the two highest OPS against are .776 (Tomo Ohka) followed by .773 (Roy Halladay). The two lowest OPS against are .732 (Erik Bedard) and .733 (Jeremy Guthrie). The median for pitchers who have thrown 50+ innings is .755.

In his ten starts this season, Clemens has faced the following teams (OPS rank in parens):

KC (24)
Tor (11)
TB (8)
LAA (14)
Min (19)
Bal (21)
SF (28)
Col (10)
NYM (13)
Pit (29)

Clemens has avoided the Tigers (first in team OPS), Indians (fifth) and Red Sox (fourth). His 3.72 ERA looks decent now, but with five series left against these top hitting teams, you should expect Clemens' ERA to rise from this point forward.

Great Work By Simmons

2007-05-16T17:01:00.000-04:00

First, props to all bloggers who manage to regularly update their sites while working a tough job and managing a family. I haven't been up to the task.

And second, much credit to Bill Simmons, who nailed his ESPN column this week, taking the NBA to task for the suspension of two Phoenix Suns for tonight's playoff game against the Spurs. The Sports Guy's historical perspective on the "Don't Leave Your Bench" rule shows a deep understanding of the issues at play.

One such issue is the faux outrage/sorrow/interest that SportsCenter is forced to generate every news cycle. Whether the subject is John Amaechi, Josh Hancock, or basketball fights, ESPN makes it the lead story with multi-angle, multimedia coverage, then leaves it by the side of the road, used up and worthless. (When's the last time you saw a John Amaechi reference? When's the last time you saw it on an ESPN outlet?) And Simmons had the huevos to critique his bosses on their own website:

"Because there was a level of competitiveness back then that doesn't exist anymore -- it's been beaten out of these guys ... partly because the SportsCenter Era (where we show the same highlight six million times and pretend to be appalled) made the decision makers too skittish (to the degree that Carmelo Anthony was suspended for 15 games for slapping another player)."

What Simmons describes is a major reason I don't watch SportsCenter anymore, but the way he described it is a major reason I don't miss a single Sports Guy column. Keep up the good work.

Pelfrey Out, Sosa In?

2007-04-25T16:54:00.000-04:00

With today's 11-5 drubbing at the hand of the weak-hitting Colorado Rockies (50% fewer home runs than Alex Rodriguez!), Omar Minaya must be tiring of the Mike Pelfrey experience. Pelfrey made the team despite getting lit up by the Devil Rays in his last Grapefruit League start (10 hits and 8 runs in 4 IP). Omar should have been on notice that Pelfrey wasn't fooling anyone, as he only struck out 5 in 23 spring innings.

Pelfrey has now failed to finish the sixth inning in any of his three starts, has walked more batters than he's struck out, and is sporting an awful ERA - 790 The Zone is the official radio station of the Atlanta Thrashers, not what you want out of your fifth starter. After a one year hiatus, the Mets find themselves again looking up at the Braves in the NL East standings, so it's time to make a move. The question is: Who takes Pelfrey's place?

A look at the Mets' 40-man roster gives us some candidates. Chan Ho Park, Phil Humber, Adam Bostick and Jason Vargas are all in the rotation at AAA New Orleans. Park is definitely not getting the call; he's performed as poorly as Pelfrey, but against minor leaguers. Humber's talent is undeniable. Baseball Prospectus ranked him the #26 prospect in all the land. He's posted a round 3.00 ERA in four starts, but I don't think Omar wants to go with another prospect to replace Pelfrey. Bostick isn't turning any heads except his own. He's allowed 3 home runs and 10 walks in only 16 innings. Vargas has pitched much better than that, with a 19:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a solid 3.42 ERA. He would be the obvious choice except for the sleeper: Jorge Sosa.

Sosa's line in four AAA starts this year? In 26 innings, 24 strikouts and only 4 walks. He's allowed but one home run, 23 hits and only 6 runs (4 earned, for an ERA of 1.38). The same day Minaya signed free agent Scott Schoeneweis and avoided arbitration with Endy Chavez and Ramon Castro, he inked Sosa to a one-year $1.25 million contract. On March 29th, the Mets outrighted Sosa to New Orleans, which means he cleared waivers and fell off the 40-man roster, but he's still making his major-league salary.

My hunch is that Chan Ho Park will be designated for assignment in the next few days, clearing out a roster spot for Sosa, who will make his Mets debut next week against Florida or Arizona.

Justifying Biggio

2007-04-25T00:25:00.000-04:00

ESPN asking Rob Neyer to start a blog (Insider) has been terrific for baseball fans because it's resulted in much more Neyer than we've been getting the past few years. Today he questions the Astros' continued use of Craig Biggio as their starting second baseman and leadoff hitter. Neyer writes that the Astros want the public relations and attendance boost that comes with Biggio's quest for his 3,000th hit, but from a strict talent standpoint, Mark Loretta, Chris Burke and top prospect Hunter Pence should all be higher on the depth chart:

"I know the organization wants to see Biggio reach the magic number. I'd feel the same way, if I were running the franchise. But can you really sacrifice a shot at the World Series in the interest of one player's statistics?"

Posing the question that way might be unfair to Biggio, who's not in charge of making out each day's lineup card. The decision to pencil in the original "Killer B" is probably coming from higher up the corporate ladder than manager Phil Garner. That makes it more a business decision than a baseball one, so Neyer's question should be rephrased as follows: "Is the potential long-term windfall from a playoff appearance greater than the short-term boost the Astros will get from Biggio's milestone-chase?"

I'm reminded of a WSJ article from a couple weeks back titled "The Real Most Valuable Players." Russell Adams reported that several teams (in particular the Cleveland Indians) have been combining sabermetrics and economics to determine which players will most benefit the team's finances. Adams writes:

"It also raises the unsettling possibility that some teams might determine that it's financially in their best interest to be mediocre, not good, and definitely far from great. That's because by some calculations, the best balance of revenue and expenses isn't always compatible with greatness, nor winning with profitability."

Teams that are closer to playoff contention stand to benefit more from marginal improvements than lesser teams. But since the Astros really aren't on the playoff fence, baseball decisions made in furtherance of the Astros making the playoffs in 2007 are likely to be misguided from a financial standpoint. Though Houston is currently in second place in the NL Central with a 9-9 record, BP's adjusted standings (taking into account the components that make up all teams' hitting and pitching performance) has the team down in fifth place at 8-10. That puts Houston on pace for the 72-win season I predicted on Opening Day.

The fact that Biggio's only hitting .222 ends up being good for the Astros. His prolonged race to 3,000 hits will (hopefully) distract fans from the fact that the Astros are not very good. It might even keep attendance at high levels when it's clear the team is out of playoff contention. The extra revenue could enable the Astros to replace the retiring Biggio with a quality free-agent in the offseason - how about stealing Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs? Finishing lower in the standings would give them a higher draft pick if they don't sign a big money free agent. Better that they keep Pence in the minors for most of 2007, keeping him at a lower salary - and an extra year - when he's on the next good Astros team.

Bill Simmons wrote about NBA teams that understand the optimal strategy for a losing team is to lose some more. Too many teams were a little too blatant with their tanking that the second half of the NBA season was far from aestheically pleasing. But if the Astros lose this year with gusto while letting Biggio get to 3,000 and then get out, everyone in Houston might be better off in 2008.

How Not To Use Your Bullpen

2007-04-23T23:40:00.000-04:00

Ron Gardenhire should be ashamed. Last night the Twins and Indians were tied at 3 heading into the 12th inning. Batting for the Tribe was the heart of the order: Pronk, Vic Martinez and Ryan Garko. Minnesota's best reliever, Joe Nathan, was available in the bullpen, having not pitched in the previous day's loss to the Royals. Instead of bringing in Nathan, Gardy stayed with Jesse Crain, who had worked a 1-2-3 eleventh.

The Twins' manager might have been looking to extend his bullpen because his starter only gave him five innings this day; Crain was Minnesota's sixth pitcher of the evening. Still, the failure to switch pitchers was inexcusable. We all know Hafner is good, but look at his splits over the last three years. Against right-handed pitchers such as Crain, Hafner's hit .323/.430/.663 (Avg/OBP/SLG). ~~Against southpaws (e.g., Nathan) he's been held to .280/.398/.514. Still good but not Ruthian.~~But Nathan is not an everyday ~~lefty~~ righty: In Hafner's nine career at bats against Nathan he could only manage .111/.273/.111 with three strikeouts! [Don't know why I thought Nathan was a lefty, except that he dominates Hafner. Sorry.]

But Crain was left in the game to face Hafner, who in five PAs against Crain had reached base 3 times (a single and 2 walks). Naturally, Hafner led off the inning against Crain with a walk. V-Mart followed with a single, sending Hafner to third. Then Garko singled, Jason Michaels doubled, and the score was 5-3 and the game was effectively over. Finally, the Twins brought in Nathan. Choose the applicable proverb:

a) The horse had left the barn.
b) The cat was out of the bag.
c) Ron Gardenhire screwed up.

Gardenhire couldn't have been waiting to use Nathan in a save situation, since the Twins were at home in extra innings - as soon as they take a lead, they win. These were the best hitters on the opposing team in a pressure situation. The Twins should have had their best reliever facing them. If Gardy was willing to use Nathan at all in this game, why not use him against Pronkey and the heart of the Indians' order?

Maybe some intrepid reporter will ask him in the clubhouse after the game.

Michael Lewis on Protrade

2007-04-20T15:11:00.000-04:00

Through the blog for the bestselling book Freakonomics, by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, we find Moneyball author Michael Lewis writing on Yahoo! Finance about stock markets in professional athletes.

Lewis cites the existence of Protrade, which is a faux market for athletes. You sign up for free and get a portfolio of fake money. You can then buy and sell (and short) the "securities" of the athlete in real time. Your "profits" can be turned into real prizes. As Lewis writes, there's a very short step from Protrade to an actual market.

Don't say this can't possibly happen: There's already a real-life hedge fund that invests in the transfer rights to soccer players overseas. David Bowie has sold bonds guaranteed by future royalty payments from his albums. Those bonds are asset-backed, which means they're not as risky as unsecured notes. But for someone looking for more risk, why not buy stock in the future earnings of Kevin Durant, provided he's willing to share some of the risk with you?

LOL

2007-04-19T23:31:00.000-04:00

From stupendous Mets blog Faith and Fear in Flushing:

"Congratulations go out to David Wright for extending his two-season hitting streak to 25 games and Met opponents for extending their 46-season hitting streak to 7,163 games

Both are Mets records."

Now that is sportswriting.

Nats Will Be Awful

2007-04-03T10:48:00.000-04:00

I respectfully disagree with Rob Neyer, who blogged yesterday that the Washington Nationals won't lose 100 games.

Set aside that their starting shortstop is so bad that Baseball Prospectus included a "Cristian Antonio Guzman Award" - position player mostly likely to put up the lowest VORP in regular playing time - in their staff prediction article. And ignore Vegas's over/under line of only 94 losses.

The Nationals' best hitter, Nick Johnson, is less durable than a used piñata - and that's when he starts the season healthy. Unfortunately for the team, the broken leg that ended Johnson's 2006 may have also ended his career. Johnson's replacement at first base is a running joke on the funniest baseball site around, which is good for laughs but not for scoring runs.

And the Nats will need runs, as their second through fifth starting pitchers have career major-league ERA's of 6.90 (Shawn Hill), N/A (Matt Chico, whose first start will be his MLB debut but had an equivalent ERA of 4.09 in double-A last year), 5.76 (Jay Bergmann), and 4.03 (Jerome Williams, he of the 7.30 ERA for last year's Cubs). If the Nationals didn't play in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game, they'd be a lock to allow 1,000 runs.

I'll put the 2007 Nationals at 61-101. And if John Patterson - the team's only legitimate MLB-quality starter - pitches like he did last night, then watch out '96 Tigers (53-109).

Opening Day Predictions

2007-03-31T17:00:00.000-04:00

Because I can't do better than the thoughtful and well-written baseball previews elsewhere on these interwebs, I'll give you three sets of my predictions. First, my entry in Baseball Prospectus's Predictatron contest (win totals for each team plus a "lock" in each league, with playoff results). Second, my entry in BP's HACKING MASS contest (choosing the players who will suck the most without getting benched). Third, what I would wager on, were I in Las Vegas looking up at the big board.

Predictatron

Note: '<--' denotes division winner, '<~' denotes wild card winner, '***' denotes mortal lock pick

American League East
New York Yankees 94 - 68 <--
Boston Red Sox 93 - 69 <~
Toronto Blue Jays 84 - 78
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 80 - 82
Baltimore Orioles 75 - 87

American League Central
Cleveland Indians 89 - 73 <--
Minnesota Twins 86 - 76
Detroit Tigers 84 - 78
Chicago White Sox 81 - 81
Kansas City Royals 69 - 93

American League West
Anaheim Angels 92 - 70 <--
Oakland Athletics 82 - 80
Texas Rangers 73 - 89
Seattle Mariners 72 - 90 ***

National League East
New York Mets 90 - 72 <--
Philadelphia Phillies 87 - 75 <~
Atlanta Braves 84 - 78
Florida Marlins 80 - 82
Washington Nationals 61 - 101

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals 87 - 75 <--
Chicago Cubs 85 - 77
Milwaukee Brewers 80 - 82
Cincinnati Reds 76 - 86
Houston Astros 72 - 90 ***
Pittsburgh Pirates 68 - 94

National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks 90 - 72 <--
San Diego Padres 84 - 78
Los Angeles Dodgers 83 - 79
San Francisco Giants 75 - 87
Colorado Rockies 74 - 88

PLAYOFFS American League Division Series:
Anaheim Angels over Boston Red Sox in 5 games
New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians in 3 games

National League Division Series:
New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals in 4 games
Arizona Diamondbacks over Philadelphia Phillies in 4 games

American League Championship Series:
Anaheim Angels over New York Yankees in 5 games

National League Championship Series:
New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks in 6 games

World Series:
New York Mets over Anaheim Angels in 6 games (¡Vamos Los Mets!)

HACKING MASS

Catcher - Brad Ausmus (Astros)
First Base - Scott Thorman (Braves)
Second Base - Placido Polanco (Tigers)
Third Base - Nick Punto (Twins)
Shortstop - Tony Pena (Royals)
Left Field - Scott Podsednik (White Sox)
Center Field - Willy Tavares (Rockies)
Right Field - Randy Winn (Giants)
Pitcher 1 - Eric Milton (Reds)
Pitcher 2 - Gil Meche (Royals)

Hypothetical Wagering Opportunities

Team Win Totals
Diamondbacks over 80.5 wins (-135)
Mariners under 78.5 wins (-110)
Dodgers under 87.5 wins (even)
White Sox under 86 wins (-115)
Devil Rays over 67.5 wins (-115)

Player Props
Takashi Saito under 35.5 saves (-125)
Mariano Rivera under 37 saves (-115)
Trevor Hoffman under 37.5 saves (-120)
Johnny Damon under 177.5 hits (-115)
Ichiro Suzuki under 215.5 hits (-115)
Jim Thome under 33.5 home runs (-115)
Alex Rodriguez under 38.5 home runs (+110)
Todd Helton to lead MLB in home runs (200-1)
Nick Swisher to lead MLB in home runs (100-1)
Jason Bay to lead MLB in home runs (100-1)
Chase Utley to lead MLB in home runs (100-1)

Good luck!

The Simmons Plan

2007-03-30T12:38:00.000-04:00

Now that Bill Simmons has published his 8-step plan on how to "fix" Holy Cross men's basketball, it's worth noting that the item most likely to have an impact on the program is one I overlooked in my Daulerioesque handicapping of The Simmons Plan: Money.

Simmons wrote, "Make me an official 'friend of the program' ... I want to be a booster. I want to break rules. I want to make a difference."

Perhaps the Sports Guy fancies himself the next Phil Knight, who has donated over $100 million to his alma mater Oregon, $40 million of which went toward renovating the team's football stadium. It's worth noting that Knight recently gave another $105 million to Stanford Business School, where he got his MBA, for entirely academic purposes.

A commenter to the original post acknowledged the Sports Guy's hubris (Knight is worth $7.9 billion and Simmons is not) but also wrote that TSG has a legitimate beef because Holy Cross basketball should aim higher than winning its league each year. Fair enough. We know Simmons doesn't have Knight's wallet - Forbes Magazine says only 69 people in the world do - but as long as Simmons is The Sports Guy, he has his Page 2 bully pulpit.

Simmons wants to make a difference? He should link to the Holy Cross Athletic Fund at the bottom of his next column, asking his readers to donate specifically to the men's basketball program. We've seen Simmons publicly trash Time Warner Cable for screwing up his HDTV for a weekend; let's see whether he'll now put his influence to more philanthropic (if still self-centered) use.

¡Vamos Los Mets!

2007-03-29T09:54:00.000-04:00

Moore's Law does not apply to the grand game of baseball. That's easy to prove because the national pastime does not deal in circuits etched onto silicon. But even metaphorically, the doubling of MLB innovation moves far slower than once every 18 months.

The most pioneering franchise since 1900 would have to be the Dodgers. They incorporated Branch Rickey's use of affiliated minor league teams (which he begun with the Cardinals), established the first full-time spring training facility in Florida, broke the color barrier with Jackie Robinson, and moved from Brooklyn to become the only major-league team on the West coast.

The past twenty years has seen a stadium construction binge, the birth of interleague play, terrible television deals, and MLBAM, but these changes were directed from 245 Park Avenue rather than by any individual franchise. Still, we must not overlook how the Texas Rangers were often ahead of their time. They had:

Sosa before he discovered steroids
W before he discovered politics
A-Rod before he discovered Jeter

And on May 5, 2006, the Rangers debuted their Los Rangers de Texas jerseys. It was a Cinco de Mayo promotion for the 35% of Texans that speak Spanish and, of course, merchandising - where the real money is made. It was not unlike the green jerseys teams have been pulling out on St. Patrick's Day, except that these were used in a regular-season game.

What really shocked me is that the New York Mets, who already have a great Spanish-language website - LosMets.com - didn't think of this first. Omar Minaya, the team's GM, has introduced plenty of Hispanic flourishes to Shea Stadium, including special Fiesta Latina and Merengue nights, P.A. announcements in Spanish and the between-inning entertainment of "Profesor Reyes."

I've had the same Bill Pulsipher Mets jersey since 1995, and though I've considered replacing the name across the back with TNSTAAPP, I've never bought a new one. Until, I hope, this year. Can fans request a specific promotion? I'm not looking for Dwight Gooden/Howard Johnson Audit Day, just an opportunity to proudly purchase a #7 Reyes Los Mets replica. Omar, are you paying attention?

Château Sprewell

2007-03-23T10:32:00.000-04:00

The "Private Properties" column in today's WSJ contains the following tidbit:

"Former basketball star Latrell Sprewell is asking just under $5 million for his house in Westchester County, N.Y. -- even though his former girlfriend is still living there, according to her lawyer." [My bold.]

Aside from misspelling Sprewell's name in the caption below his pixellated photo, the WSJ goes on to say that Sprewell's former girlfriend (and mother of his four children) is suing him for violating their cohabitation agreement and assaulting her. No word on whether Sprewell used his signature finishing move, "The Carlesimo."

As a public service, here's the listing on S otheby's International Realty in case you'd like to make a bid. Be advised that the sound recording equipment in the basement and the two chandeliers are excluded from the purchase price.

The vital stats?

13 rooms
7 bedrooms
6 full baths
3 half baths
9,278 square feet
$75,061 in taxes every year!

See below for additional photos -- consider it a quickie episode of MTV Cribs.
.

Handicapping Simmons' Holy Cross Project

2007-03-21T17:35:00.000-04:00

The arc of Bill Simmons' sportswriting career has forcefully intersected with the ascendant exponential function of bloggers. Many believe the Sports Guy has discarded his outsider status (hobnobbing with Anna K in Miami?), run out of material (so now he's a college basketball fan?), and generally lost his touch (his mailbags lately consist of letters from readers who agree with him). Simmons has always said he's not going to hang around Page 2 forever, but it's clear some feel he should already have moved on.

Few, if any, of those people fail to acknowledge Simmons' contribution to the kind of unconventional sports coverage that bloggers now engage in regularly: Writing somthing sportive in connection with television/music/movies/cars ... Posting diaries of live even ts ... Criticism of tv sportscasters. It's fair to say that blogging has unleashed the vast talent on the internet (and me - $1, Sheehan) to in effect out-Simmons the Sports Guy.

ESPN has allowed TSG to branch out from writing columns. They've sent him to the Super Bowl and various league all-star games. He's provided color commentary for a couple of minor college hoops games, and now he's formally blogging (Can one "formally" blog?). His latest basketball post listed the following as a dislike from the NCAA tourney:

"Holy Cross hoops: Honestly? I'm embarrassed. That was a disgrace. The Cross is now going on 30 years without an NCAA win. And you know what? I've had enough. Somebody needs to save our basketball program and it's going to have to be me. Details to come this spring."

The Sports Guy is foreshadowing this Holy Cross project on his Page 2 blog, thus it's likely he has the blessing of the Worldwide Leader to "fix" the 'Cross and write about it for ESPN. So, with apologies to The Cultural Oddsmaker and The Balls, AJ Daulerio...

I'm clicking over to Page 2, affecting my best Boston accent, and placing odds on exactly how Bill Simmons will save the Holy Cross men's basketball program.

Suiting up for the team: 25/1

Simmons is always writing about that one time, back in college, when he set a pick and then rolled to the basket while his teammate passed him the ball for an easy layup!!!!! Holy Cross is a "mid-major" school that plays in the Patriot League alongside noted basketball powers Colgate and American. The only Patriot League school ever to make a Final Four are your Holy Cross Crusaders, back in 1947. Simmons could easily make the varsity squad and contribute to a "whitewash" starting five. He could even borrow the #10 jersey of graduating senior Keith Simmons. The Sports Guy still has years of NCAA eligibility left, and you know he's been rehabbing his back for this very reason.

Writing for the Holy Cross student newspaper: 7/2

Don't call it "slumming." TSG would tell you himself, since he's started writing the ESPN column he's witnessed Patriots and Red Sox world championships. The collective karma of his thousands of readers rooting for Holy Cross would undoubtedly boost his alma mater's chances to bust everybody's 2008 NCAA bracket. Simmons himself admits that when he "started writing for the Crusader, everything fell into place..."

Becoming Holy Cross Athletic Director: 3-1

If Simmons has said it once, he's said it a thousand times: The Sports Guy would be one of the best general managers in the entire NBA, right now. And everybody knows college basketball is easier than the pros. He's even won the NBA Celebrity Fantasy League. You think he can't do better than Richard M. Regan, Jr.?

STFU: Even money

The Sports Guy adopted an EPL soccer team and has since written once about soccer, because he doesn't know jack about soccer. He has season tickets to the Clippers but only mentions the team to advise us that his farting friend Blueboy could repair the team's poor chemistry. When the first Holy Cross column appears on Page 2 later this Spring, expect perhaps one follow-up column and then radio silence, because Holy Cross does not need to be fixed, certainly not by Bill Simmons.

BP Hope and Faith versus Deadspin Snark

2007-03-20T10:54:00.000-04:00

My two favorite sites are both posting daily MLB team previews. Baseball Prospectus titled its series "Hope and Faith" with the caption How Your Team Can Win The World Series. Deadspin turned the podium over to a different guest blogger for each team, so while you wouldn't expect a recurring theme, it seems that nearly everybody writing needs a refill on the ol' Xanax prescription. We're still a few weeks from Opening Day so not all the previews are up, but I think you'll see what I mean. Have a look:

Baltimore Orioles:
BP - "It is still early in spring, but so far Markakis is hitting .440 and Huff is right behind him at .409. The pitchers are doing great, the Red Sox can't figure out who their closer is, and Igawa and Matsuzaka have both been knocked around. It's all coming together, Oriole fans."
Deadspin - "Another item on my distressingly long list of reasons I know I'm getting old is that it is harder and harder every year to remember when I would get excited for an Orioles season ...As things stand, this is an utterly forgettable franchise. When is the NFL draft?"

Boston Red Sox:
BP - "Combined, the offense and pitching in our rosy scenario post a 560 VORP. That would lead to a projected record of 104-58, and while any 100-win team has a legitimate shot at the World Series, those with three dominating starting pitchers do better than those with equivalent-but-deeper total talent. If Schilling, Beckett, and Matsuzaka are humming along, the wait for the next Red Sox World Championship won't be anywhere near as long as the last one. "
Deadspin -

Chicago White Sox:
BP - "[H]elping out the cause is the fact that their main competition is the Tigers, who are about to be a victim of the plexiglass principle, and the Twins, who have a rotation that includes Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz...'nuff said. The Indians will be better, certainly–-but 21 games better? I don't see it.
Deadspin - "Some things still concern me. If Mark Buerhle can't bounce back, I don't think we have a chance at the postseason. Can Scott Podsednik stay healthy, let alone raise his batting average? Will he still be cute? Can this team convince me they're really a team, and don't just wear the same uniform -- despite the back office dealings that become front page news?"

Cleveland Indians:
BP - "Put another way, the upside is that an improved pen, a pitching staff, an offense that replicates their 2006 output, a defense that picks up a couple extra wins, and a little help from lady luck could all combine to put the Indians right back at the 90-95 win level. That should be enough to put them in the hunt come September."
Deadspin - "So yeah, this year's team will be better than the one that played in 1987. They'll be better than the one that disappointed Clevelanders last year, too. The problem? Just like in 1987, the Twins, Tigers and White Sox are still all better than the Tribe. And the Royals won't be pushovers, either."

Detroit Tigers:
BP - "If the Sheffield, Casey, Verlander, and Polanco scenarios come through–-and each of those are fairly plausible--the Tigers are looking at 93-95 wins and a spot in the playoffs. The Tigers rate to be a good secret sauce team, and if they can get into the World Series again, I don’t expect to see Brandon Inge diving around like an Italian soccer player."
Deadspin - "These days, there is no way to be a well-informed fan of most teams and get through the spring without having a cold bucket of calculus-based pessimism poured on your baseball fever... So I guess we just have to be nice to strangers and hope that the karmic wheel will not deal us some sort of cruel, White Sox-like, getting-better-but-not-making-the-playoffs fate." (To be fair, this preview was guardedly optimistic, but it's funny that the Deadspin author is blaming statheads for drowining fans' hopes while the BP crew marshals its resources to present best-case scenarios.)

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
BP - "The Angels had the best record in the majors from the first of July through the end of the regular season. After a 35-44 start, the Halos were in last place in the AL West at the end of June--five games out of third, and 7 1/2 behind the front-running Oakland A's. The team then went 54-29 the rest of the way, outpacing even the hard-charging Minnesota Twins (53-31), but they nevertheless fell four games short of first."
Deadspin -

Minnesota Twins:
BP -
Deadspin - "Perhaps that's why, thrilled as I am about another baseball season being right around the corner, I can't seem to muster any great optimism for the Twins this season."

New York Yankees:
BP -
Deadspin - "Sure, we may not make it to the World Series every year. But, like a fantastic shit, being a Yankees fan, overall, is pretty damn satisfying." (More disturbing than depressing.)

Oakland Athletics:
BP - "All of this makes for a certain giddy anticipation--two shots of hope with a perhaps-unavoidable fear chaser. As long as we're on top of a volcano, at least we've got our dancing shoes on. Sure, the roster could go totally Krakatoa on us, but I have faith that this year, we'll wind up enjoying the view from the top."
Deadspin -

Seattle Mariners:
BP - "Both the Athletics and Angels appear to be better teams headed into the season, but not by much. If the players the Mariners believe in to defy the odds all reward the team’s faith in their potential, they’ll easily contend all season long."
Deadspin - "Rooting for the Mariners is futile, draining, and infuriating. It's not easy to document in a blog post; a baseball team this willfully and historically bad needs to be documented and exposed in a book like Fiasco. Thomas Ricks wouldn't even have to change the title."

Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
BP -
Deadspin - "So, 2007 ... the year the Rays come out of the cellar for the second time in their decade long history? Perhaps. The year the Rays win 72 or more games, setting a franchise record? Maybe. Come April 2, Scott Kazmir on the mound at Yankee Stadium against the vaunted Pinstripers, we'll begin what should be, if nothing else, the most fascinating and perhaps exciting season in D-Rays' history."

Texas Rangers: (Both sites must be in a bidding war to get Jamey Newberg to write the preview.)
BP -
Deadspin -

Toronto Blue Jays:
BP - "Isn’t it just time for the Yanks and Sox to step aside and let the other AL East teams try their hand at representing the division in the playoffs? Neither Baltimore nor Tampa Bay appears poised to take advantage of any slippage that may occur in 2007. In contrast, the Jays already knocked Boston out of the #2 spot in 2006, and New York may just have enough concerns about their pitching for the Jays to succeed in moving past them as well."
Deadspin - "The era when 50,000 people packed the Skydome-slash-Rogers Centre every game are long gone, but we're gonna keep it raucous all summer long in Mr. Rogers' neighbourhood as Doc, B.J., Vernon, Big Hurt and the boys go after a playoff spot. The Blue Jays are back, and we aren't keeping quiet about it." (Canadians are generally more optimistic than Americans.)

Arizona Diamondbacks:
BP - "This Diamondbacks team is returning to relevance, and can win the World Series just by making the right choices for the roster and catching some breaks with a couple of older pitchers in the rotation. They’re closer than you think."
Deadspin -

Atlanta Braves:
BP -
Deadspin -"Thanks to this offseason's most significant Braves news -- the sale of the team from one megalithic media conglomerate to another in some kind of hypercomplex three-card-Monte asset swap -- Atlanta's fans enter the 2007 season realizing that, in corporate terms, their team is as disposable as an extra ketchup packet."

Chicago Cubs: (Even though the Cubs are favored to win the NL Central, nobody really thinks they're going to win the World Series.)
BP -
Deadspin -

Cincinnati Reds:
BP - "While other teams in the division appeared to upgrade their rosters, no team in the NL Central seems strong enough to run away and hide. If the Reds make just a few marginal improvements, they could get their record over .500, giving them a chance to win the NL Central. Once they get there, as the Cardinals showed, anything can happen."
Deadspin - "It's hard not to be optimistic when Bronson Arroyo is one of your two staff aces. Wait, did I just write that? Was Rick Mahler not available anymore? Can we get Jose Rijo back? Arroyo has never won more than 14 games in a season. And while he and Aaron Harang are not a bad one-two punch, you get the feeling both guys would rather be doing back-up vocals for a band at Bonnaroo."

Colorado Rockies:
BP -"We were kind of like that team taking batting practice," [George Brett] said, nodding at the Colorado Rockies. Now, let’s not get carried away. A run like the Royals made–-seven of 10 years in the postseason capped by a world championship in 1985-–is more dream than reality in the everchanging world of major league baseball. There is, however, some validity to Brett’s comparison, and there is definitely a feeling among the Rockies that they have reached a point where it’s time to start winning."
Deadspin - "I can't construct any reasonable argument for anyone to become a Rockies fan. (Neither, apparently, can the team; their business model focuses on selling as many as season tickets as possible to local corporations that mostly won't use them and jacking up the ticket price scale for holidays and series against the Cubs, Mets and, in 2007, the Yankees.)"

Florida Marlins:
BP - "In Willis, they have a Chris Carpenter-like starter with series-dominating potential, and in Cabrera, they have that game-breaking slugger that can make his opponents seem puny. Add in some good choices from Fredi Gonzalez, Beinfest finding a league-average cener fielder, and the talent blossoming, and you've got a team with a shot."
Deadspin -

Houston Astros:
BP - "You, Tim, shall have your ring. This very year. There is no one to stand in our way. Only so much luck to go around for some, so much money for others, but even if he does not come, we have enough. (Looks around.) By god, we have enough." (Will Carroll wrote the Astros' preview as a baseball-themed Waiting For Godot. I don't know what to say about this.)
Deadspin - "We have never won a World Series, and there is little to no chance we will do that this year, so huzzah! Have another inning-ending double play, Adam Everett! Yes, so long as this blessed streak continues, we can go on about our business, secure in the knowledge that God is in his heavens and all is right with the world."

Los Angeles Dodgers: (Dodgers fans are notorious for showing up late.)
BP -
Deadspin -

Milwaukee Brewers:
BP - "The Brewers are the only team in the league which could take an injury at almost every position and still have a solid replacement there the next day (aside from Sheets going down again). There’s no team in the division with the bench depth and versatility. There’s no bullpen in the NL with the combination of role players, power arms, and potential. With all that, the team simply has to do what’s expected. For once in Milwaukee, that’s enough."
Deadspin - "They won't make the playoffs because the 2007 Brewers lack the most important feature necessary for a baseball team to be successful in Milwaukee. They lack the one thing the Brewers teams of the 1980s had in spades. The 2007 Brewers lack mustaches." (Fantastic theory!)

New York Mets:
BP - "To assume that the only team to win 90 games in the league–-first order or actual--is going to come all the way back to the pack is folly. Perhaps a case can be made for the Braves--who underachieved last year–-moving ahead of New York to grab the title, but there is no way that two National League clubs are going to outstrip the Mets this coming season. Therefore, at the very least, then, they will be the wild card team."
Deadspin -

Philadelphia Phillies:
BP - "What is certain is that the Phillies should be right in the thick of things. They haven’t built a great club, but they have a good one, and with an intelligent move or two they’ll be worth watching for more compelling reasons than being the only ballgame on free TV that night."
Deadspin - "But even without the long-gone grit of Vet Stadium, 2007 is one of the more hope-filled years in a decade. This year, there's more polish, more shine, more hope than usual, about a team that's been a giant tease for five years straight -- even though their off season moves resulted in neither a Jim Thome signing or a Billy Wagner trade." (Daulerio's too hopped up on Burrell's 'swordsmanship' to worry about the actual, you know, baseball.)

Pittsburgh Pirates:
BP -
Deadspin - "14 consecutive losing seasons and a total of just seven winning seasons since 1979. This is a franchise that went from 1927-1960 between postseason appearances, so there's some history of long droughts. Although as droughts go, we may be in for the baseball version of 'The Dust Bowl.' "

San Diego Padres:
BP -
Deadspin - "The strategy for the Pads this year is the same as always: assemble a solid pitching staff, view offensive output as purely optional and just count on the Dodgers and Giants to screw the pooch. In recent years, this strategy has been enormously successful." (MJD expects another NL West title.)

San Francisco Giants:
BP - "The Giants are not the favorite to win the NL West, nor should they be, and much less is the chance they get through the 1/8 coin toss that is the postseason. But it doesn’t require the same suspension of disbelief to see them win the division and get a shot at the ring that it does to watch an entire episode of '24.' " (Huckabay damns with faint "hope and faith.")
Deadspin - "I'm not your garden variety Brian Sabean basher; I think he's done more with fewer resources than just about any GM one could name. But like the aging team he's constructed, time is not on his side. As another notable San Francisco character, Robin Williams, once said (and probably stole), 'You had an hourglass figure, but your time is up.' "

St. Louis Cardinals:
BP - "The best part is that it can happen again. I mean, it’s not as though the credulity-straining scenarios I am about to lay out could be more improbable than what actually happened last year, right? After a season like 2006, the fictions come easily. So let's take a look at what needs to happen if the Cardinals—bless you boys—are to repeat in 2007."
Deadspin - (I assume the Royal We is going to preview the World Series champs himself when every other team is done. Or, he'll just retell that story about Leyland's smoking PSA.)

Washington Nationals:
BP - "About the only way this year can create some hope and faith for Nationals fans that involves their getting to a world championship, you pretty much need to start off with positing a full-scale meltdown of the rest of the NL East, and top it off with a deal with the baseball gods thrown in for good measure should you expect them to win the World Series."
Deadspin - "Let's face it: If your team isn't going to win the championship, the next best alternative for any fan is superlative achievement. In the case of the Nats in '07, not simply being the worst team in baseball THIS season, which is just sorry, but maintaining the promise to become the worst team ever to take the field. Crapportunity!" (Shanoff is legit, ladies and gentlemen.)

Perhaps Xanax should sponsor the Nationals this season.

The Queue

2007-03-15T12:00:00.000-04:00

So I logged in to March Madness On Demand right at noon, only to find 47,254 people already waiting in line. They have a little timer labeled "Next Admission." It counts down from twenty seconds and then resets.

Not knowing how many users are admitted to the live games area each "admission" period, let's assume the worst: only one person leaves the waiting room each time. So that's 1/3 minute * 47,253 people ahead of me = 15,751 minutes until I get to watch a live game.

In other words, 262.5 hours or nearly eleven days until I get to watch the live video.

Update: 14 minutes have passed and I am now number 39,111 in the queue. So it seems 200 people get in every twenty seconds. That means only 79 minutes until I get to watch me some NCAA basketball!

Update #2: I waited only 23 minutes total (plus a 15-second commercial). Perhaps they only let in relatively few people at a time in the beginning, but opened up the floodgates later on. The picture quality is decent in the half-court set, though during fast breaks it's pixelated like vintage 1997 broadcast.com. The picture also keeps blacking out. You need to minimize the window and then bring it back up to get the picture back.

Update #3: Every so often, the audio feed switches from the game announcers to the commercials that CBS is broadcasting, maybe for some other game. This is much more annoying than the occassional blackout.

Still, you can't beat free.

The Sports Alphabet

2007-03-13T23:39:00.000-04:00

Too often I've had to spell out a word to a customer service agent over the phone. Because it's hard to differentiate between sounds like D and T, the military named the letters Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, etc. I can't remember past Delta and Echo. (Okay, I looked it up - it's Foxtrot. Tell me you know what G is.) That means I'm stuck thinking of words on the fly, which is time-consuming and potentially embarassing if one is not careful. P used indiscriminately is an especially dangerous letter.

To save Get Untracked readers this hassle, I've put together the Sports Alphabet as a public service, providing the most memorable representation for each letter.

A: Aaron

B: Bird

C: Charles (Sir Charles to you)

D: Deion (Perhaps Daisuke in a few years)

E: Eli (Excluding the eminently eligible Eckersley, Erving and Ewing, as none of them are excellent E sounds)

F: Federer
G: Gretzky
H: ~~Hakeem~~ Holyfield (In deference to those who remember Olajuwon before he added the H to his first name)
I: I s i a h
J: Jordan
K: Kobe (Because most CSR's don't know who Koufax is, and because Kareem is overrated)
L: Lemieux
M: Magic
N: Nicklaus
O: Ozzie (Smith, not Canseco)
P: Payton/Peyton (Edging out Pelé, Pujols, Pedro and Papi)
Q: Quisenberry
R: Reggie (Hall of fame first name of Jackson, Miller, White)
S: Strawberry (Schmidt doesn't work for this purpose)
T: Tiger
U: Urlacher
V: Valenzuela
W: Willie (Mays, Stargell, McCovey and Keeler - also Lanier and Brown)
X: Xavier (The 9-seed, X-man and Professor)
Y: Yastrzemski
Z: Zimmer

Got a more memorable name for a letter? Put it in the comments.

Sandy Alomar Jr. > Brandon Webb?

2007-03-07T14:08:00.000-05:00

Here at Get Untracked, we're big believers in The Wisdom of Crowds, a theory described by New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki in his 1994 book of that name. The author wrote that when a large decisionmaking body meets four criteria: (a) variety of opinions, (b) independence of members, (c) decentralization, and (d) an effective means of collecting opinions, the resulting choices will produce better results than those obtained by following the suggestions of the smartest people in the group.

In preparing for my fantasy baseball draft, I use ESPN's live draft results as one of many references. The list "displays the average position players were selected by team owners in ESPN Fantasy Baseball live drafts. Only players that have been drafted in a significant number of leagues will show up on this list." I believed that the thousands of people drafting teams would collectively provide a better ranking of players than any single projection system like PECOTA, CHONE, ZiPS or MARCEL. I was wrong.

The list starts out just fine, ranking Albert Pujols first, followed by Soriano, A-Rod, Reyes, Johan and Ryan Howard. But when you get to picks 51-100 (click screen capture to your right), things get a little screwy. Pick 52? Sandy Alomar, Jr. Pick 56? Eli Marrero. Pick 64? Pedro Feliciano. It's like Omar Minaya was choosing guys for his "all-Latin Early-90's" themed fantasy team.

It's clear that ESPN's fantasy draft results page doesn't meet Surowiecki's conditions to be a "wise crowd." Perhaps there is not sufficient variety of opinion, independence or decentralization. All the players listed above have Mets connections so perhaps only Mets crazies have held their drafts. (Or one Mets crazy has drafted 13,248 times.)

What's more likely, however, is that this ESPN page is not a good method for aggregating opinions. The far right column of the list shows what percentage of fantasy leagues each player is owned in. For the top MLB players, this should be virtually 100%. Sandy Alomar Jr. was selected with the average 51st pick, but he is owned in only 0.5% of leagues. This contradicts ESPN's promise only to list players drafted in enough leagues to make the list helpful.

Somebody needs to tell the WWL about the technical glitch on their fantasy site. (Dare I say ESPN is having a Sportsline Moment?) Too bad their hallowed ombudsman is leaving...

The Rain In Seattle Falls Mainly On The Visitors

2007-03-05T18:42:00.000-05:00

Fascinating article by Russell Adams at the WSJ describing teams' concerted efforts to make stadiums more hostile to visiting players. Qwest Field is notorious for elevated levels of crowd noise. But I had no idea that the Seahawks got a weather advantage too:

In addition to contracting engineers to make sure that the wind and rain would disproportionately hit the visitors' sideline, [the stadium's architect] placed the cheapest endzone seats (where, he says, the "crazies" sit) atop steel risers that send thundering noise to the hard surfaces on the overhangs and roof, redirecting it back to the field.

I remember a few years back when an employee of the Metrodome turned on vents to help Twins' fly balls become home runs. And in recent years college football's SEC conference and the NFL have both legislated against artificial noisemakers. The NFL's rulebook even has a section devoted to phrases that may not appear on jumbotrons: "Pump it up" and Let's go crazy" are both prohibited.

We've witnessed an arms race with respect to new football stadium construction. The pink taco has a roll-out natural grass field. The Cowboys' new venue will have a 60-yard-long HD scoreboard. But after the Seahawks' success in their new super-loud digs (29-11 since moving to Qwest Field!), you can expect other teams building new homes to ratchet up the acoustics - and especially the weather - to extend their own home-field advantage to Seattle-like levels.

What can the NFL do about this? Seems like the seahawk has flown the coop.

Sportsline Moment

2007-03-01T10:13:00.000-05:00

I'm not one to subscribe to conspiracy theories. They usually presume too much competence. But yesterday's post on the Knicks' pathetic lack of assists combined with this morning's box score could be a diabolical statistical inflation situation. Somebody at the NBA could be going through box scores and giving extra assists though a game's official scorer decided none were deserved. According to the box score for last night's game, the Knicks finished with 22 assists as a team. But the play-by-play information at CBS Sportsline shows the Knicks only had seven, including zero in the first half.

A conspiracy theorist would say this is like the Yankees deciding after a game that when Derek Jeter kicked a grounder then bounced his throw, that was really a hit not an error. But my story is more likely to result from human operator error.

You've heard the phrase "senior moment" used to describe the failing memory of old people? Well, at Get Untracked we coined the phrase "Sportsline Moment" for those times my buddy and I would follow out-of-town NFL games on Sportsline and see them report the impossible. The GameCenter might tell us a negative-65 yard pass was just completed, then a minute later realize the mistake and fix it.

More often, Sportsline would stop updating a game for indeterminate periods because something strange happened and they needed time to explain it (e.g., T.Jones right tackle to CHI 28 for 17 yards (A.Dyson, V.Hobson). FUMBLES (A.Dyson), RECOVERED by NYJ-K.Rhodes at CHI 35. K.Rhodes to CHI 35 for no gain (T.Jones). Play Challenged by CHI and REVERSED. T.Jones right tackle to CHI 28 for 17 yards (A.Dyson, V.Hobson).) The most blatant Sportsline Moment last season was when Sportsline told us a game was FINAL with Team A having won, while we watched live bonus coverage on TV of Team B kicking a game-winning field goal with one second left.

Because Sportsline's "GameCenters" simply pick up the feed from NFL.com, Sportsline Moments ensure that the play-by-play we read on the screen is the official account from the NFL. My mistake in last night's post was failing to realize that Sportsline has no special agreement with the NBA. I do, however, stand by the spirit of my post: Marbury is an awful point guard, Frye and Curry never pass the ball, and Isiah Thomas should be fired. Who can argue with that? If I had been following the game at NBA.com, I would have seen play-by-play giving the Knicks nine assists in the first half, not zero.

(Why, you ask, am I following an NBA game online when I could be watching my hometown Knicks on TV? Because I work 14-hour days and am still at the office at 10:00 at night, that's why. I'm a little bitter.)

In any event, now I know that Sportsline is useless for tracking stats of individual players during a live NBA game, and that I should use NBA.com for that purpose. And knowing is half the battle!

Those Selfish Knicks

2007-02-28T20:54:00.000-05:00

Take a 26-32 Knicks team, remove scoring leader Jamal Crawford (ankle stress fracture) and rebounding leader David Lee (sprained ankle), and you apparently get a team that can't pass.

Click on the screen capture to the left and you'll see that the Knicks played the entire first half of tonight's game in Boston against the Celtics (14-42) without dishing a single assist!

This shouldn't be too surprising, considering that their point guard, Stephon Marbury, is one of the most notorious "shoot-first, pass-rarely" point guards of all time. He's never averaged 10 assists per game during his decade in the league. His last two Knicks years are far worse than that PG benchmark: 6.4 per game last season and a measly 5.5 per game this year.

Other guards on the Knicks' active roster include Steve Francis (probably out for the season with a bad knee), Mardy Collins, a rookie (picked after the immortal Renaldo Balkman) up from the D-League, and Nate Robinson, a mini-Marbury who is so far in Coach Isiah's doghouse that the Knicks only started one guard against Boston. Thomas-signee Jerome James must have been the two-guard in the lineup - he played exactly one minute in the half.

...

So we're through the third quarter and the Knicks now have four assists! Their first of the game came from Eddy Curry, and their second and third from Channing "They Go To A Lake Of Fire And" Frye, both of whom average zero-point-eight (0.8) assists per game. Marbury finally got on the assist scoresheet with 0:24 left in the period.

As repulsive as the '06-'07 Knicks have always been, this game is historically fugly. The record for fewest assists by a team in a game is three, last accomplished in 1976. Fewest assists by both teams in a game? Ten, which only happened once, in 1956. The teams have twelve after three quarters - thanks to Celtic Rajon Rondo's six assists - so we're not going to match the record tonight. But hopefully the NBA will add tonight's game to their "NBA Encyclopedia" so we can fondly remember these Knicks and Celtics for all posterity.

...

The most ridiculous part of this story is that three minutes into the fourth quarter, the Knicks were actually up two points before being outscored by 10 the rest of the way. Say it with me: Fire Isiah!

Lotteries Suck

2007-02-22T16:20:00.000-05:00

That's the email I got from the Mets today. More than a dozen people I know tried and failed to win the right to buy tickets to any of the *four* games offered in this poor choice of method to allocate tickets. It's like the Mets made a conscious decision to prevent average fans from getting Opening Day tickets except through a scalper.

Think about it this way: With a lottery, you guarantee that eBay sellers and scalpers will sign up for the sole purpose of putting the tickets on the secondary market. Since the lottery signup is online, the barrier to entry is tiny (an internet connection and a credit card to buy tickets if you win the lottery) and there are no geographic hurdles (a reseller in Flushing can register as easily as one in Fargo). Because of the low cost of entering the lottery, resellers will enter many, many, many times, lowering the chance that any single Mets fan will win a chance to purchase tickets.

If, instead, every ticket the Mets wanted to sell for these games was put on the auction block, scalpers could still participate, but there would be little profit opporunity for them. That's because fans who want to go to the games would buy tickets at the "market clearing" price. Scalpers could try to bid $51,111,111 for dugout seats, but would be unable to resell them for more.

Using a lottery begs the question: Are the Mets trying to help out scalpers, or are they just too stupid to realize their mistake?

Saabs and PAPs

2007-02-14T17:00:00.000-05:00

We've had some fun around here comparing major league pitchers to some fine automobiles, so let's speculate on the baseball equivalent of this true story.

The guy on the left bought that grey Saab 900 SPG new in 1989 and has recently passed (cue Dr. Evil) one million miles on the odometer. The guy on the right is a Saab executive who rode shotgun as the numbers turned, then announced that this guy - and anybody else who can prove he bought a new Saab and drove it a million miles - gets a free 2007 Saab 9-5 Aero (MSRP $38,735).

When I considered this well-worn Swede (the car was manufactured well before GM bought Saab) my first thought turned to hurlers who'd been asked to throw many thousands of pitches over a long career and how usage patterns have changed over time. The guys at Baseball Prospectus created a system called Pitcher Abuse Points (PAPs) to describe the effects of overuse. Last year, for example, Livan Hernandez and Carlos Zambrano finished 1-2 in PAP, averaging over 100 pitches per start.

Pitchers and cars may be the same in this respect. You don't want to go full-throttle before the engine's had a chance to break itself in (young pitchers shouldn't throw too many high-stress pitches) and you need to perform preventive maintenance (the Oakland A's call it "prehab") throughout the life of the car.

But as I began to type, I realized that here is a car that had not been abused; from its pristine condition (it has the original engine and turbo!) one must admit it's been lovingly maintained. It's no stretch to say that more cars could be driven for six-figure mileage if people took better care of them. It's a similar conclusion to an article at The Hardball Times that suggested GM's should start conditioning their minor league pitchers to throw more pitches than usual.

That being said, I imagine we'll see a return to the 4-man rotation before someone else comes forward to trade his million-mile Saab for the latest model.

Do You Know This Horse?

2007-02-13T17:57:00.000-05:00

It's not Barbaro.

If you think the WWL has bombarded you with mentions of John Amaechi's autobiography (published, of course, by ESPN Books), you ain't seen nothing yet.

Today's WSJ (subsciption required) reports on ESPN's efforts to conquer one of the last sports markets it has not already overwhelmed. An editor at ESPN Books says they look for books that will work "for the magazine and for television," confirming (at least in my mind) that, without the marketing muscle of Bristol, many of these books would fail. Sure, the Sports Guy sold 80,000 copies' worth of column reprints, but how many of you remember Billy Bean?

In any event, the horse pictured above is "Ruffian," a racehorse from the 70's that was put down following a one on one sprint against the 1975 Kentucky Derby winner in which it broke a hind leg. Later this year, ESPN books is publishing a racing writer's memoir of his time covering the filly (forgive the pun), complete with an ESPN-produced TV movie to be broadcast on ABC television (and later on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNetc.). Think Man In The Middle crossed with "Hustle." They're hoping the offspring looks like Seabiscuit, but... well, maybe that is Barbaro after all.

Riddle Me This

2007-02-09T10:37:00.000-05:00

Q: What do Six Flags, Clinton Portis, and Johnny Rockets have in common?

A: Childlike innocence and Red Zone Capital.

That's the private equity fund owned by Redskins boss Daniel Snyder.

Tickets and You

2007-02-09T08:04:00.000-05:00

Wednesday, the New York Times reported on the Mets' plans to make their four platinum priced 2007 games - Opening Day and the 3-game series against the Yankees - available in a lottery. According to the press release:

"The Mets have launched the online ticket registration to provide fans a fair and convenient way to purchase tickets from the limited availability for Opening Day and the Subway Series."

Sure it's convenient to win the right to buy tickets in a lottery - you don't have to stand in line at a ticket window. But whether the lottery is fair depends on your perspective - whether you get lucky and win the lottery, or not. As a public service, here's a quick economics lesson courtesy of Get Untracked.

Fans of all sports now accept variable pricing for tickets, the idea that a Mets game versus the crosstown rival Yankees on a sunny May weekend should cost more than a game on some random Tuesday in September against the 91-loss Nationals. The Mets in fact charge five times as much for an upper deck reserved seat at the former game as compared to the latter ($25 to $5). However, the Mets admit by the act of holding this lottery that they're still not charging enough for those Platinum games. For many fans, the admission price they would be willing to pay for Opening Day or the Subway Series is much greater than that charged by the box office, resulting in a shortage of tickets, more commonly referred to as an event being sold out.

Why do teams underprice their most in-demand tickets? Teams' public relations staff will tell you it's to keep ticket costs low enough that the "average fan" won't get pissed off at a team charging $100 for nosebleed seats at the Subway Series. But that P.R. is B.S. Fans don't feel taken advantage of by scalpers who can get them into a sold-out game. Diehard fans appreciate the ability to pay for tickets to a game they really want to attend, which is why eBay and Stubhub and all the teams' own scalping sites are so successful.

But wait!, you say. Scalping deprives fans of the ability to attend games if they can't afford scalpers' high prices for tickets. Remember, though, there are only about 55,000 seats at Shea Stadium but many more thousands of people who want to go to Opening Day. Even in a world with no scalpers, there will be people who want to attend but cannot. Scalpers make it possible for at least a portion of those people - those who value attendance most highly - to see Opening Day.

The fairest - by which is meant most transparent - way to sell these Platinum tickets would be to hold an auction for each and every one of the seats not already sold to a season ticket holder or otherwise hoarded by the Mets for VIP's. An auction at the start held by the Mets would simply replace an auction at the end held by scalpers, and would ensure that nobody gets "lucky" by winning the lottery and paying face-value for seats that would go for many times as much on the open market. Everybody - not just lottery winners - has the right to buy tickets to the game. That's fair.

Where Is The Magazine Link?

2007-02-07T20:11:00.000-05:00

Continuing the recent "sports website redesign" theme, it seems that during the recent redesign of Sports Illustrated's site, the link allowing print subscribers to read certain magazine articles online has disappeared.

Anybody out there on the Interwebs know where the link is hiding or why it went bye-bye?

EDIT: I called SI's magazine customer service, and the rep said "Yes, we see they changed their site and we're taking complaints about it." I said, "Please add me to the list of people who want that access restored."

In other words, they know what they're doing and will see how much we complain about it. The number to call and make your voice heard is: 800-528-5000. Or I suppose you could email the "publicity" department in the hopes that bad media relations forces SI to relent: si.com_press@timeinc.com

The Essence of Blogging

2007-02-03T16:12:00.000-05:00

I know Will at Deadspin's been promoting the theory for some time that this year's Indianapolis Colts are similar to the 2006 World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. So when the idea showed up at Baseball Prospectus' "Unfiltered" blog, which itself contained an email from Aaron Schatz, head of Football Outsiders, naturally I had to post about it. If that's not what blogs are for, then call me Dee Mirich.

Sampras Goes InsideOut

2007-01-30T00:18:00.000-05:00

With thicker hair on his chest than on top of his scalp, a weathered Pete Sampras intends to play tennis on the over-30 tour. This was originally going to be a serious post about the beauty of homogeneity by rule in sports leagues. Restricting participation to a select few (e.g., softball leagues for Congressional staffers or Westchester Jews), results in more competitive games at the expense of quality of play. That's a good exchange for those of us who wouldn't make a D-I program. Anyway, on to the comedy:

The ESPN headline calls the senior league Sampras is joining the "Champions Series," although the text of the article calls it the "Outback Championship Series." If that's not bowl-season enough for you, the tour's website says, "InsideOut Sports & Entertainment presents the Outback Champions Series." I guess Gaylord Hotels and the San Diego County Credit Union had other sponsorship commitments.

So what is this InsideOut Sports? Glad you asked. (Please don't read this paragraph like the Royal We told you to read Mel Kiper.)

InsideOut Sports & Entertainment develops and produces proprietary events and promotions that provide advertisers unprecedented access to talent, unique opportunities to generate exposure for their brands, and the ability to connect in a meaningful way with their target customers.

There's not much about aging athletes maintaining their dignity and quenching their thirst for competition. Sampras, by the way, joins a roster of luminaries in the sports and entertainment world, including:

Taylor Dent
Mardy Fish
Anna Kournikova
Clyde Drexler
Sean Elliot
Paul O'Neil
Dr. Phil McGraw
Neil Schon (Journey)
President George Herbert Walker Bush
Barbara Bush

Pete must already share with Dr. Phil InsideOut's "common vision - to create world-class properties." You really thought this was about tennis?

Color Schemes

2007-01-29T13:54:00.000-05:00

Don't those Page 2 articles look kind of naked without their yellow page background? The old style black type on a yellow background was pretty easy to read, though not as legible as dark blue on light yellow.

The randomness of yellow pages throughout an internet of mostly black text on a white page always appealed to me. My original choice of light blue on dark grey was meant to similarly separate Get Untracked from everything else on the web.

But making the site easy to read should have been my primary goal (forgive the pun) so in honor of the departed Page 2 scheme, what you see is henceforth what you get. Enjoy.

Predicting the Sports Guy

2007-01-22T11:12:00.000-05:00

If Simmons kept a running diary of last night's Patriots-Colts game, I'd expect it to include the following...

How about the Reche Caldwell "wide-eyed terror" face? Belichick believed his Pats could win with no talent at wideout. He even left a ton of salary cap money on the table to prove his point. Yesterday's game - with Reche Caldwell dropping two huge passes and Jabbar Gafney and Troy Smith having quiet games - makes the NE coach look much less the genius.

Anybody got a better photo of Caldwell's huge eyes?

The Brooklyn Barclays?

2007-01-19T11:26:00.000-05:00

The model on the left is the proposed arena in Brooklyn the New Jersey Nets will occupy as soon as the city council allows it to be built. Barclays Bank just agreed to pay $20 million a year over 20 years to put its name on the building. The Sports Economist contends that the British bank should have just bought the team instead, because Forbes Magazine estimated the Nets value at "only" $244 million.

I'm not sure Barclays overpaid, as it appears they matched the market price for naming rights to a New York City sports facility. Who cares how much other NBA teams get to rent the name of their arenas? Recall that the Mets also got $400 million to slap a Citi on their new stadium. But here are a few good reasons why Barclays did not buy the Nets and rename the team:

(1) Bruce Ratner bought the team with the intent to move it to Brooklyn. He's been building in that borough since 1988, and took over development of the Atlantic Center (currently a shopping mall and the site for the proposed Nets arena) in 1991. The arena wouldn't exist (even as a model) without Ratner's pull as a prominent New York developer.

(2) The value of the Nets as a Brooklyn franchise will be much greater than Forbes' recent estimate of the team as a tenant of the Meadowlands. That the team commands $20 million a year just to name the arena speaks to both the potential attendance boost and other sponsorship opportunities for a Brooklyn team over a New Jersey team.

(3) The NBA frowns on corporate ownership of franchises. Cablevision owns the Knicks. The Toronto Raptors are held by Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd. That's it.

(4) Speaking of the Knicks, that team is a perfect example of why corporations don't want to own sports franchises: If the team starts to suck, after the coach and GM take their share of the heat, it becomes the owner's fault. That's happened with the Tribune Company (Cubs) Time Warner (Braves) and News Corp. (Dodgers). It's much easier for a corporation to put its name on a shiny new arena. Nobody's blaming Madison Square Garden for the Knicks' troubles.

So Barclays couldn't have bought the team and didn't want to buy the team. It wanted to popularize its name, perhaps as a part of an expansion into the US. Of course, it might not even get that, as people will probably end up calling it "The Bark."

Randy Johnson is a Ford Super Duty

2007-01-12T00:03:00.000-05:00

There's been a curious lack of attention paid to the Yankees' trade of Randy Johnson to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Perhaps "trade" is too generous a term; it was more like a $14 million salary dump in exchange for Luis Vizcaino - a guy who barely cracks a list of last year's top 40 relief pitchers - and three unknown and unheralded minor leaguers.

People might think that a 43-year-old starter who's posted ERA's of 3.79 and 5.00 the last two years isn't worthy of big headlines. Those same people also claim that a guy who's recovering from back surgery and couldn't win a single playoff game in New York is not worth our consideration. Granted, he's got a ton of mileage on him, and the declining strikeout rate is troubling.

But the fact that the Big Unit needed back surgery after last season should make us pause before condemning his 2006 as proof of declining skill. If past is prologue, recall that Johnson had a similar surgery ten years ago. The Unit's results the following season? 20-4, with a 2.28 ERA and 291 strikeouts in 213 innings pitched. Looking just at 2005, Johnson was a top 30 starter, and may yet be again, moving to the easier league. Rather than sending him to the scrap heap, we should compare Randy Johnson to the Ford Super Duty pickup truck. Let's break it down, Get Untracked-style...

It dominates the field.
Ford's pickup has been the best-selling vehicle in America for the past 26 years. One auto writer back in 2004 even wrote, "If Ford's F-Series pickup were to lose its position as America's best-selling vehicle, the effect would be similar to that of a World Series victory by the Boston Red Sox: the end of an era." Chants of "1918" won't be heard in Yankee Stadium again, but the F-Series remains the country's best-selling vehicle. Randy Johnson dominates as the best lefthanded pitcher of his generation, seated in the pantheon between Steve Carlton and Johan Santana. Johnson's a lock for the Hall of Fame, with 280 wins and 4,544 strikouts, good for third all-time (and counting).

Its size is unmistakable.
The F-450 Super Duty 4x4 measures almost 22 feet long and weighs 8,687 pounds. The Honda Fit subcompact, for comparison purposes, measures a scant 13 feet long and tips the scales at 2,551 pounds. Yes, a Ford Super Duty could easily fit the Fit in its truckbed. Randy Johnson - despite his "Big Unit" nickname and 6'10" frame, is not the tallest pitcher in major league history. That distinction goes to Washington Nationals righty Jon Rauch, at 6'11". Still, Johnson's unique combination of height, left-handedness, three-quarters delivery and blazing fastball has always made hitters feel tiny.

It doesn't mesh with New York City.
A researcher extrapolating a sample of automobiles in the five boroughs of New York would probably conclude that the best-selling vehicle in America was the Lincoln Town Car. Or maybe the Ford Crown Victoria. You can't even drive the Super Duty on New York City p arkways. Randy Johnson's first experience in the city wasn't a pleasant one. At least he didn't assault the cameraman like fellow southpaw Kenny Rogers. Both the Super Duty and Johnson are more suited to rural locales. Like Houston or Arizona - but nowhere as perfect as Atlan ta.

It's linked to country music themes.
You've heard the phrase "Texas Cadillac?" A large, customized pickup like the Super Duty is just what they mean. Jeff Foxworthy said you might be a redneck if you spent more on your pickup than on your education. Before joining the Yanks, Johnson had a Foxworthy-caliber mullet. Other country music themes connected to the Unit include divorce and child support. But perhaps the most popular country music theme is redemption, and that's what I think Randy Johnson's going to provide next year for the Diamondbacks.

Tom Hammond Loves This Blog

2007-01-06T18:52:00.000-05:00

Not really, of course. But with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, Hammond's already mentioned its name twice, both in reference to the Chiefs' offense.

On a side note, I couldn't remember Hammond's name when I started to write this post, so I looked up who NBC planned to use for the first game of its Wild Card doubleheader. From entertainment blog "Your Entertainment Now" comes the following:

On January 6, 2007, NBC will have a doubleheader of football that night. Tom Hammond (Notre Damn football broadcaster for the network) and Cris Collinsworth (currently a contributer to NBC’s “Football Night In America” as well as part of the NFL Networks Thursday night football games) will announce the first game of the night.

Either that blogger hates the golden dome, or he needs to proofread a tiny bit better.

What Did I Tell You?

2007-01-04T10:04:00.000-05:00

Quinn's stinker (15-of-35 for 148 yards, including just 4-of-10 for 24 yards in the second half) shouldn't have surprised you. As predicted yesterday, Notre Dame's now lost nine straight bowl games, sort of like Duke's basketball team losing regional semifinals three of the last four years. Somewhere JJ Reddick is popping his collar.

Will Brady Quinn Pull a J.J. Reddick?

2007-01-03T12:19:00.000-05:00

Remember the last time a supremely hyped athlete from a blue-blood university went up against a scrappy LSU team in a nationally-televised postseason game? I'm thinking about the 2006 NCAA basketball tournament, when top-seeded Duke and J.J. Reddick were upset by #4 LSU, leaving Reddick in tears and his draft stock plunging.

Now comes Brady Quinn of the ballyhooed Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Quinn's expected to be the Raiders' #1 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, and he has certainly been overexposed in the mainstream media. Tonight he goes up against the stout defense of LSU in the Sugar Bowl. The parallels end there, though, because the Tigers are strong 8.5-point favorites in tonight's game instead of a heavy underdog like the '06 basketball squad.

Let's just say I wouldn't be surprised tonight to see Brady Quinn crying on the sideline as the clock ticks down.

Why There's No College Football Playoff

2007-01-02T15:15:00.000-05:00

Phil Miller, a professor of Economics at Minnesota State University, Mankato, put together a nice post at The Sports Economist about the game theory strategies of Boise State at the end of last night's Fiesta Bowl. At the end, he squeezed in a couple paragraphs explaining why, even though last night's game proves (again) that the little guys can beat the big boys, we're not going to see a playoff system anytime soon.

Miller writes, "There are too many schools in D1 that have little shot in a reasonable playoff format who have a better shot at some kind of recognition (and cash) in the current bowl system. Their presidents can out-vote the presidents of the OU's and Texas's in the NCAA."

Here's how I responded in the comments of that blog:

I agree that a playoff is not forthcoming, but not for the reason you mentioned. This WSJ article described how, last year, 26 lower-tiered bowls distributed $64.36 million, for an average of $1.24 million per team.

Compare this to the following quote from the article: "BCS means money. The big BCS conferences get $14 million to $17 million if they have one team in one of the five bowls; a second team, an additional $4.5 million. Last year, the six conferences and Notre Dame received a total of $118 million."

It's clear that the conferences most likely to make a BCS bowl are the ones with the most to lose by going to a playoff, not the Boise States. Think about the recognition and money that George Mason University gained from its success in last year's NCAA basketball tournament. Imagine if Boise State beat not just Oklahoma, but also USC, Notre Dame and Ohio State to take the national championship. That is where the real money is.

The Wisdom of Crowds - Season Recap

2007-01-01T15:33:00.000-05:00

With the end of the NFL regular season, here's a quick note to document an abbreviated 2006 for The Wisdom of Crowds. (This blog came online in mid-November, so our picks were only posted the last seven weeks of the season.)

Published on Get Untracked, our record is 38-30-1 (.559) against the spread.

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 17

2006-12-29T23:58:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it.

My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 86-63-1 on such games (.577). Published on Get Untracked, we're 33-26-1 (.559). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

WASH +2.5 giants

CIN -6 pit

HOU -4 cle

mia +9 IND

KC -2.5 jax

NO +3 car

sea +3.5 TB

TEN -3 ne

sf +10.5 DEN

Your NFL Network Update

2006-12-28T10:34:00.000-05:00

As your primary source for updates on the continuing feud between the NFL Network and the cable companies, be advised that the Texas Bowl between Rutgers and Kansas State will be available on both Time Warner and Cablevision. As a public service, here's all you need to know:

Time Warner customers who subscribe to the "digital" package will receive free access to the NFL Network on channel 199 until Saturday at 8pm. This gives Time Warner subscribers the ability to watch both the Texas Bowl and the Insight Bowl (Texas Tech vs. Minnesota). The end of TWC's free access coincides with the start of the Giants-Redskins game. However, New York and Washington-area subscribers will be able to watch this game on free local television, as required by law.

Cablevision, on the other hand, is providing free access to the NFL Network only for the Texas Bowl. All Cablevision subscribers will be able to watch the game, not just digital subscribers. Channel listings are available here. Again, local fans of the Giants and Redskins will find the Saturday night game on regular TV.

A few items of note:
- The NFL Network's page describing this week's free access to its channel (the "freeview") contains at least one incorrect channel listing - for Cablevision. This could be a simple typo, or - conspiracy theory alert! - it could be the NFL Network making it more difficult to find the game in New Jersey, where Cablevision has a monopoly. Customers who can't find Rutgers on TV will blame the cable company, not the channel. We've already seen that New Jersey state politicians were planning to pressure Cablevision to include the NFL Network in its regular channel package until Cablevision agreed to show the Texas Bowl. The NFL could be sending Cablevision customers to the wrong channel so they get pissed and call their congressmen, who then stick it to Cablevision. Or it could just be a typo.

- If you clicked on the links above, you saw that Time Warner Cable is using NFL Network imagery on its website to promote the freeview but Cablevision is not. This bodes well for TWC subscribers who are willing to pay for the NFL Network. Time Warner's display of logos, fonts and other NFL-themed imagery is valuable advertising for the NFL Network, so this is likely a show of goodwill by TWC in its negotiations to permanently carry the channel. Expect the NFL Network to be available on Time Warner Cable in time for the 2007 season.

- The freeview is not available in high definition for TWC and Cablevision customers. I know this in the first case because I called Time Warner and asked, and in the second case because I am a Cablevision subscriber, so I can see that the channel they're reserving for the freeview is not an HD channel. I tried calling the NFL Network (310-840-4635) to find out whether the game is being filmed in HD, but the switchboard doesn't open until noon Eastern time. I'll find out and let you know. I believe that the NFL Network, a new cable channel looking for subscribers, would be smart enough to show its entire freeview in HD as a way to separate itself from crappy little startups like, oh, CBS, but I'm not yet sure.

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 16

2006-12-22T23:58:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 82-61-1 on such games (.573). Published on Get Untracked, we're 29-24-1 (.547). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

kc -6.5 OAK

no +3 GIANTS

wash +2 STL

CLE -3 tb

chi -4.5 DET

JETS +2.5 mia

Poor Ryan Leaf

2006-12-21T20:57:00.000-05:00

Watching the awful Las Vegas Bowl between BYU and Oregon, we're told that Oregon QB Brady Leaf is the brother of failed Charger/Cowboy quarterback Ryan Leaf.

Back in February, we learned that the elder Leaf was taking the quarterback coach position at D-II West Texas A&M University. What we didn't know at the time was that Leaf was working for free. (Not that Leaf needed the money after getting $11.25 million to sign with San Diego in 1998.)

Anyway, Brent Musberger is pretty excited to let Ryan Leaf announce he's going to be paid for coaching at West Texas A&M next season. Is "quarterback coach" a newly salaried position in 2007? No. Has Leaf been promoted to offensive coordinator? Nope. Turns out Leaf will become the new men's golf coach.

" 'I am honored that I have been given this opportunity and to continue to be a part of this University at something other than a volunteer level,' said Lead. [sic!]"

Yep. Ryan Lead "will be expected to guide the team primarily in the areas of team building and leadership." For money!

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 15

2006-12-15T15:27:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 76-57-1 on such games (.571). Published on Get Untracked, we're 23-20-1 (.535). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

SEA -9.5 sf [as posted yesterday]

dal -3 ATL

phi +5.5 GIANTS

hou +11.5 NE

BUF -1 mia

TEN +3.5 jax

den - 2.5 ARIZ

kc +8.5 SD

OAK -2.5 stl

IND -3 cin

Greg Maddux is a Corvette Sting Ray

2006-12-15T00:03:00.000-05:00

Tim Sullivan writes of recent Padres signee Greg Maddux, "If he has lost some of his fastball to the ravages of time, he has retained the fuel economy of a parked Prius. He is maximum efficiency with minimum exertion."

I see where Sullivan was going with the metaphor. My favorite MLB box score of all time is from Maddux's 76-pitch complete game in 1997. But it's clear Sullivan is a sportswriter not an engineer. (I'm not an engineer either, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Select last night.)

If a Prius is parked with the engine running, the car is as inefficient as it can be. Efficiency is the ratio between useful output and energy consumption. If the car's parked but the engine is running, it consumes gasoline (or battery power) but isn't doing anything productive. Maximum efficiency for a Prius occurs when the gasoline engine is making 76 horsepower at 5000 RPM or the battery-powered engine is making 67 horsepower at 1200 RPM. That's why your father always told you to shut the car off when you're waiting for someone - running a parked car is a waste of gas.

If we're going to compare Maddux to an automobile, let's do it right and explain why Greg Maddux is very much like a Chevrolet Corvette Sting Ray.

It takes 40 years to make a classic.
1966 is the year Chevy introduced the legendary "427" big block V8 engine, now prized by collectors worldwide. It's also the year the legendary Gregory Alan Maddux was born, now considered an inner-circle hall of famer. The Prius has only been around since 1997 - it has a long way to go to reach "classic" status.

There's a whiff of controversy in the air.
That 427 engine actually came in two flavors: a 390-hp version (the "RPO L36") and a 425-hp version (the "RPO L72"). The L72 reportedly put out even more power than what Chevy quoted - 450 horsepower - but they deflated the specifications on paper to stay under safety regulators' radar. Greg Maddux has won 333 games by changing speeds and moving the ball around the strike zone like he has it on a string. Mark Buehrle is not the only one to accuse him of doctoring the ball.

Chicks dig it.
The side exhaust pipes, the split rear window in the fastback, gills on the front-quarter panels. Automobile magazine named the Sting Ray one of the world's 25 most beautiful cars. The Prius will only help you pick up ladies at a Sierra Club convention. As for Maddux...

By the way, Tom, they'll stop worshipping the guy in March of 2005 and he won't sniff the Hall of Fame in 2007. Gotta love the billboard. Surrrrrrrre it's the shoes.

R.I.P. Lamar Hunt

2006-12-14T10:59:00.000-05:00

From the obituary of Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt, who died last night:

Hunt long campaigned to let teams other than Dallas and Detroit play at home on Thanksgiving Day. To honor his effort, the NFL scheduled a third game on the holiday this year -- in Kansas City. Hunt missed it, though, because he was in the hospital and couldn't get the game on TV.

KC-Denver was the first game broadcast on the NFL Network. It's a sad irony that the man who coined the term "Super Bowl" couldn't see - from his deathbed - a game scheduled to honor him.

The Wisdom of Crowds chimes in on tonight's game: SEA -9.5 sf

That's It?

2006-12-13T11:08:00.000-05:00

If published reports are true, the Red Sox and Scott Boras, agent for Daisuke "Skyline" Matsuzaka, are only $3 million in yearly salary apart. Boston wants to pay $8 million a year, while Boras countered with $11 million a year.

It seems that neither side has a problem with a six-year contract. I was under the impression that contract length was the sticking point. Boston would want a long deal (5+ years) to spread out the cost of Skyline's posting fee. Boras would counter with a short deal (3 or 4 years) so the Japanese ace could go back on the market at the tail end of his prime.

If six years isn't the issue for Boras, then I'll be shocked if the parties can't come to an agreement. Boras's asking price plus the pro-rated posting fee of $8.52 million per year ($51.11 million / 6 years) yields an average annual value of $19.52 million. In a world where Gil Meche is worth $11 million a year for five years, Skyline's easily worth $19.52 million over six.

Get ready for tomorrow's press conference announcing the signing.

Watch NFL Network For Free

2006-12-13T00:42:00.000-05:00

Editor's note: Click here for a quick recap of the controversy between the NFL Network and the cable companies.

The NFL has offered New York-area cable companies seven days of free access to the NFL Network during the last week of the year. This isn't an unusual move by Roger Goodell and company. Networks like HBO ocassionally provide free access in an effort to gain viewers. It's a moneymaking play for networks, because customers who watch the premium content during the free period are more likely to pay for it when the trial run is over.

Make no mistake, the NFL is not acting altruistically here. By making this offer to Cablevision and Time Warner Cable, the NFL Network gets the New York viewers it's been missing, and it gets to associate itself with the word "free" in the public eye. More importantly, the free access period happens to include December 28, the date of the Texas Bowl between Rutgers and Kansas State. The Royal We noted that the NFL Network owns the right to broadcast this game, so by allowing viewers in New York and New Jersey to watch for free, the NFL avoids an intervention from Garden State politicians, who might have otherwised forced the NFL to lower its per-subscriber asking price in order to get Rutgers on the air.

Cablevision realizes all of the above, and has already announced that it has accepted the NFL's generous offer to show the Rutgers bowl game. Left unsaid? Cablevision will not be showing any other NFL Network programming during the free week. It seems like a neat slap in the face to the NFL, which wouldn't generate NY/NJ ratings for its signature content (NFL games). However, it's mostly an empty gesture because the Giants-Redskins game that Saturday night (scheduled for the NFL Network) will be broadcast on over-the-air television in those teams' local market for all to see, as required by law. In other words, New York viewers get the Giants game anyway, probably on channel 11 or channel 9.

Both the NFL and the cable companies continue to screw over their customers. Neither side deserves our support. And as a public service, here's an end run around them both. It's called Sopcast. Download the free software at Sopcast.org, then click over to a blog called Streaming NFL Games, where they'll tell you the code to enter into your Sopcast window to pick up the live feed of the NFL Network, with no commercials!

Enjoy, from your friends at Get Untracked.

Pujols Should Cost $300 Million

2006-12-12T00:11:00.000-05:00

Back when I had time to play video games, I would have fun with Baseball Mogul 2005, a free one-player GM simulation. You could start the game with players on 2004 MLB rosters or choose "shuffle players" to mix it up. The best way to ensure sucess in your first season is to trade for Albert Pujols, signed for six years at a way-below-market $2.2 million. The players shuffled onto the free agent wire always change. When Pujols is there, he's worth $25 million a year.

Over at the website for The Book, they estimate that if Albert Pujols were a free agent in today's market, he'd be worth $300 million over 8 years. In related news, if Alex Rodriguez hit free agency today, the Dodgers would still have signed Juan Pierre.

Pacific League -0.5 MLB

2006-12-11T00:40:00.000-05:00

The latest news on Daisuke ("Skyline") Matsuzaka? Report: BoSox's talks with Matsuzaka nearly dead. The reality? It's more like even money that he'll be taking a physical on Wednesday and signed by the Thursday deadline.

In a recent column, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus elegantly explained how the Boston Red Sox "queered the process" of the posting system between MLB and the Japanese Pacific League. If you're not a BP subscriber (though you should be), here's a quick recap:

1) Boston overbid for the exclusive right to negotiate with Matsuzaka; their bid of $51.11 million was almost 30% higher than the second-place Mets' bid.

2) The Red Sox have refused to offer a market value contract for a starting pitcher of Skyline's ability. If 33-year-old Jason Schmidt is getting $15.66 million a year, the in-his-prime Matsuzaka should get $20 million/year.

3) Neither the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's team in Japan, nor Skyline himself, have any leverage in these negotiations. If the Red Sox and Scott Boras fail to agree on a contract, Seibu gets zero dollars instead of $51.11 million. Skyline would then have to go back and play in Japan, where his salary is only $3 million. He wouldn't become eligible for true free agency until after 2008.

4) Seibu has the incentive to return some of the posting fee to the Red Sox so the American team can better afford to add Matsuzaka to their rotation. If Boston gets a $10 million mail in rebate on Skyline and are able to sign him to a five year deal, that would lower the average annual value of the contract by $2 million. But MLB nixed that idea as against the spirit of the process.

5) Even if a side deal goes down, the Red Sox have broken the posting system. As Sheehan wrote, "For the teams that the Sox outbid in the blind process, nausea rules the day. It may turn out that the Lions receive less from the Red Sox than what the next-highest bids would have brought in straight up, which renders the process a farce. "

Just because next year's arrangement between MLB and the Pacific League will be different than the current posting system, one should not take the ESPN article at face value when it says Matsuzaka's on his way back to Japan. The article quotes a "source familiar with the negotiations," but also says that attempts to reach Boras for comment were unsucessful. That means our article's source is likely affiliated with the Red Sox, the other party to the talks. And what better way to exert Boston's leverage than through anonymously sourced news articles?

Two more reasons the Red Sox will have Matsuzaka in their 2007 rotation: First, they need him - they can't count on Schilling and Wakefield for 350+ innings. Second, MLB, which has notably intervened in the Astros' bid to re-sign Andy Pettitte, doesn't want to insult the Japanese by screwing over one of its baseball teams in the process of bringing their best player over to America. My guess is that Skyline signs with Boston for about $13 million per year.

***

The system's been broken before. In 1994, Hideo Nomo "retired" from the Pacific League so he could sign with the Dodgers. Three years later, a 21-year-old Alfonso Soriano pulled the same stunt. But as rich as Soriano became this November, the real catch of the 1997 offseason was one Hideki Irabu. To get a leg up on MLB, the San Diego Padres signed a working agreement with the Chiba Lotte Marines, Irabu's Pacific League team, essentially turning the Marines into a minor league affiliate.

That prompted Major League Baseball and the Pacific League to conjure up the posting system. Now that the Red Sox have exposed the fatal flaw, here are two possibilities for the next agreement between MLB and the Pacific League.

1) Allow subsequent bidders to step in after the winning team's 30-day exclusive window has expired. This would create pressure on the winning team to sign the Japanese player because someone else could get him. There's a chance that the second- or third-place bidders could also lowball the player in question, following in the footsteps of the auction's winner. But that's unlikely; because those teams' initial bids were lower, they'd have less trouble playing the average annual salary that the player's agent is seeking. And there's something to be said for getting the player your opponents also wanted.

2) MLB could pay the Pacific League a yearly fee in lieu of the bidding process in exchange for shortening the time before Pacific League players become free agents. Pacific League players would love to gain earlier access to the free market. Right now they must wait ten years after first signing. [Edit: It's nine years, as reported by the Japan Times. But the same article tells us that, unlike in MLB, Pacific League players don't accumulate service time while injured(!)] This agreement could reduce that time to seven or eight years, more in line with American leagues. MLB benefits on the field by having more of the world's best players in the world's best baseball league. They also benefit in the bank with some basic economics - by increasing the supply of players, the prices on those players will fall. Pacific League teams would receive a regular income stream from MLB, perhaps $40 million a year split among all teams in the league. This would allow the entire league, rather than individual teams, to benefit from Japanese stars migrating to America. It would also provide the Pacific League teams with regular income instead of the random postings we've seen over the last seven years.

However the parties agree, the Red Sox will be remembered as having paid the largest-ever posting fee under the old posting system.

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 14

2006-12-08T17:37:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 68-54-1 on such games (.557). Published on Get Untracked, we're 15-17-1 (.469). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

PIT -7 cle [as posted yesterday]

giants +3 CAR

atl -3 TB

min +1.5 DET

JAX +1.5 ind

WASH +1.5 phi

oak +11 CIN

MIA +3.5 ne

gb +4.5 SF

den +7.5 SD

chi -6 STL

The Get Untracked Sports Fan Index

2006-12-08T11:45:00.000-05:00

College bowl season and all its crazy sponsorships got me thinking about the interaction between sports and the larger business world. Major league baseball stadiums now resemble their minor league counterparts with all that advertising, and as Peter King wrote a couple weeks back: "The NFL on TV is one giant commercial interrupted by football."

Companies wouldn't be willing to pay so much for advertising to sports fans - $2.5 million for a Super Bowl XLI ad, for example - unless they expected a positive return on that investment. Because we as sports fans are contributing so nicely to corporations' bottom lines, why shouldn't we also reap some of the rewards? Readers of Get Untracked are emotionally invested in the sports world. Here's a way to become financially invested as well: The Get Untracked Sports Fan Index.

Below are the ten publicly traded companies that will constitute the initial Index. I will invest a virtual $1,000 in each and provide periodic updates, using the Powershares Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment exchange-traded fund (PEJ) as a benchmark. (In reality, I own no shares in any company in the GUSFI.)

Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (BUD, $48)
Sports fans drink beer. Lots of beer. And nobody sells more of it in the U.S. than Budweiser. They've just installed August A. Busch IV as CEO. Some see it as typical corporate nepotism. Instead I see that the guy is only 42, and that he oversaw the original Bud frogs, Whassup, and "I love you, man" ad campaigns. He is better situated to understand today's beer buyer than the 64-year-old he's replacing. Bud is practically a value stock (18.2 price-to earnings ratio) compared to the rest of the beverage industry (19.71 P/E) and the food and beverage sector as a whole (18.98).

Sodexho Alliance (SDX, $60)
This French company is actually the number one service provider at college stadiums and arenas in the U.S. So when you're buying an eight-dollar bottle of water at the Rose Bowl, chances are Sodexho's Sports and Entertainment division gets most of the profit. They've just increased their dividend by 27%, a strong sign of growth going forward.

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP, $63)
The "-co" at the end of Pepsi's name should remind you that Pepsi is more than the signature colas and Mountain Dew. Their other major brands include Frito-Lay chips and sports drink leader Gatorade. Pepsi received antitrust clearance yesterday to purchase the Naked Juice Company, which will dovetail nicely with Pepsi's Tropicana division.

Time Warner, Inc. (TWX, $21)
The next two picks should be considered sports fans' "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" selections. Time Warner owns cable monopolies across the country, and recently purchased (with Comcast Corp.) the assets of bankrupt cable operator Adelphia Communications. Beyond the cable and ISP businesses, Time Warner owns AOL, HBO, New Line Cinema and TBS, among other holdings. We're six years past the AOL-Time Warner merger, enough time for this company to become a sleeper despite its status as a massive media conglomerate.

Walt Disney Company (DIS, $34)
There's nobody better at exposing the men behind the curtain at The Worldwide Leader than the Royal We, but even Master Leitch would admit that his "To Watch Tonight" segment features ESPN links more often than not. Sure, the cellphone service idea was a flop, but it proves they're thinking outside the box. Disney was out in front with putting shows like "Desperate Housewives" up on the internet, and its purchase of Pixar demonstrates a commitment to maintaining its technological advantage.

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY, 53)
Expect consumers' adoption of HDTV to accelerate in 2007, as the cost of 40-inch flat panels fall below $1,000. The next few years should also see a transition from standard DVD's to their high-definition counterparts. Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics retailer, stands poised to benefit from both trends. Best Buy will also open its first store in China this month, where it will uniquely provide the kind of one-stop shop for home appliances and digital products like cellphones and mp3 players, which in China are usually not sold by the same store.

Dover Saddlery Inc. (DOVR, $9)
What, the Barbaro craze hasn't convinced you there's a huge market for equine products? By failing to get this post up last night, I missed out on today's nine percent run-up in the stock. Still, Americans have never had more leisure time or more money to put into high-end hobbies like riding horses. Founded by members of the U.S. Equestrian team, Dover is the largest direct marketer of such products.

International Game Technology (IGT, $45)
National news in the gaming industry has focused on the Bush administration's ill-conceived ban on internet gambling. State legislatures, however, keep authorizing Indian groups to build casinos, either on their own land or as part of horse racing tracks. The casinos will stock their slot rooms with machines from this designer and manufacturer of gaming machines. Established casinos continue to replace old spinning reel slot machines with network-connected video models, a market in which IGT is a worldwide leader.

K-Swiss Inc. (KSWS, $32)
Nike and Adidas, of course, are the most well-known athletic footwear brands. Each recently completed acquisitions, with Nike purchasing Converse and Adidas buying Reebok. K-Swiss remains independent and solidly profitable. About to launch a new clothing line throughout Europe, they could be about to break out of the shadows.

Under Armour, Inc. (UARM, $51)
Synthetic microfiber performance products were not on the sports radar five years ago; now Under Armour is a $300 million business. But they don't just sell tight-fitting muscle shirts. You've seen their "click-clack" ads for football cleats, but now they're expanding into hunting apparel and the ski market. By looking for opportunities that the big boys at Nike ignored, Under Armour will continue to grow in leaps and bounds.

The Wisdom of Crowds - Unwatchable Game Edition (Week 14)

2006-12-07T18:27:00.000-05:00

Though we can't see the game, WoC picks PIT -7 cle.

NFL Network Can't Beat Dog Show, Smackdown, Skins Game

2006-12-06T11:05:00.000-05:00

They've finally posted the television ratings for Thanksgiving week. The Broncos-Chiefs game shown (they say) on the NFL Network doesn't crack the top 14, beaten by such "sports" programming as the National Dog Show, with 4.8 milliion households, Friday Night Smackdown, with 2.8 million households, and The Skins Game, with 2.3 million households. Publicly available sports ratings only list broadcast programs, but it says here that the only 1.8 million households watched the football game.

The NFL Network claims it has 41 million subscribers. For the Thanksgiving night game to have drawn more eyes than some exhibition golf event, a mere seven percent of subscribers needed to watch the game. Aside from the chalk covering in the first two weeks, this tells us two things:

1) Most who currently subscribe to the NFL Network do so unwittingly because they don't care about the games. The cable companies argue that it makes little financial sense to put this channel on the "basic cable" tier because ratings prove that over 93% of cable customers who have access to the NFL Network aren't interested in this programming. However, the NFL Network responds that most cable channels are provided in just this fashion. You don't want Lifetime or Oxygen channels, but you pay for them anyway.

2) The cities likely to give the NFL Network its highest possible viewership still can't access the channel without subscribing to a satellite service. Cities served by Time Warner include Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, L.A., New York, Houston, Charlotte and Green Bay. Then there's a company called Bright House Cable, which monopolizes Tampa, Orlando and Indianapolis. Charter Cable won't let you watch the NFL Network in St. Louis or Madison.

Both sides have spent millions campaigning for your vote, and I'm not pleased with either of them. If cable companies weren't granted monopoly powers, I could subcribe to Verizon's FIOS service and get the NFL Network. If the NFL didn't allow DirecTV a monopoly over NFL Sunday Ticket (subscribing to Sunday Ticket gets you the NFL Network), I could buy that package and watch all the games I wished. Both parties in this debate are anti-consumer. How about some free market cable franchise reform?

Email Your Favorite Bowl President

2006-12-05T16:11:00.000-05:00

As a public service, below are email addresses for the person in charge of each bowl game, to the extent available. Some interesting notes:

- The Armed Forces Bowl and Las Vegas Bowls are actually run by ESPN employees.

- Can we take a collection to buy the Hawaii Bowl a domain name? Hotmail is so 1990's.

- The Peach Bowl is run by the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce.

- The same guy who runs the Motor City Bowl in Detroit the day after Christmas is directing the International Bowl in Toronto on January 6.

Tickets may still be available!

AT&T COTTON BOWL CLASSIC
Rick Baker, President
rick@attcottonbowl.com

ALAMO BOWL
Derrick Fox, President/CEO
derrickf@alamobowl.com

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
Paul J. Hoolahan, Executive Director
paulh@sugrbowl.gs.net

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
Steve Ehrhart, Executive Director
sehrhart@libertybowl.org

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
John Junker, President & CEO
jjunker@fiestabowl.org

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL
Tom Starr, Executive Director
thomas.r.starr@espn.com

BRUT SUN BOWL
Bernie Olivas, Executive Director
bolivas@sunbowl.org

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Gary Stokan, President
gstokan@macoc.com

EMERALD BOWL
Gary Cavalli, Executive Director
gcavalli@emeraldbowl.org

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
Keith R. Tribble, Chief Executive Officer
ktribble@orangebowl.org

GMAC BOWL
Frank Modarelli
frank@gmacbowl.com

GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
Scott Ramsey, Executive Director
sramsey@nashvillesports.com

INSIGHT BOWL
John Junker, Executive Director
jjunker@fiestabowl.org

INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Ken Hoffman, Executive Director
loding@internationalbowl.org

MPC COMPUTERS BOWL
Gary Beck, Executive Director
beck@mpccomputersbowl.com

MOTOR CITY BOWL
Ken Hoffman, Executive Director
director@motorcitybowl.com

OUTBACK BOWL
James P. McVay, President/CEO
jimmcvay@outbackbowl.com

PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
Bruce Binkowski, Executive Director
bink@holidaybowl.com

PETRO SUN INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Missy Setters, Executive Director
indybowl@independencebowl.org

PIONEER PURE VISION LAS VEGAS BOWL
Tina Kunzer-Murphy, Executive Director
tina.c.kunzermurphy@espn.com

R&L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Billy Ferrante, Executive Director
bferrante@gnosf.org

ROSE BOWL
Mitch Dorger, CEO
mdorger@rosemail.org

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
Bruce Binkowski, Executive Director
bink@holidaybowl.com

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL
Jim Donovan, Executive Director
jjdonovaniii@hotmail.com

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
John Junker, President
jjunker@fiestabowl.org

TOYOTA GATOR BOWL
Richard Catlett, President
rcatman@gatorbowl.com

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 13

2006-12-01T17:41:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 64-49-1 on such games (.566). Published on Get Untracked, we're 11-12-1 (.478). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

CIN -3 bal [as posted yesterday]

GIANTS +3.5 dal

STL -6.5 ariz

jax +1 MIA

sf +7 NO

det +13.5 NE

sd -6 BUF

DEN -4 sea

car -3 PHI

Bettors Ignore Thursday Night Football

2006-11-30T16:37:00.000-05:00

Forget what the NFL is telling you about the success of its new Thursday Night Football package on the NFL Network. The people that truly drive football ratings - gamblers - have spoken, and they're saying "who cares."

Before each week's NFL games, the New York Post publishes a pull-out Bettor's Guide. Aside from definitive game lines (used here to make NFL picks), the Post also provides a listing of every televised sporting event all weekend. For $0.25, it's a bargain (although you do have to throw out the other 80 pages of newsprint).

The Bettor's Guide is published on Fridays, in plenty of time to get your picks to your bookie. But the week of Thanksgiving, they put it out on Wednesday so you don't miss picking the holiday games.

I was wondering whether the Guide would keep coming out on Wednesday for the rest of the year, to encompass the Thursday Night Football game. Nope. It didn't appear yesterday, and it's not there today. If the NFL Network broadcast a game on Thursday night, and nobody bets on it, does it make a sound?

For the record, Wisdom of Crowds takes CIN -3 bal.

Reversed

2006-11-26T18:12:00.000-05:00

Check out Fox's scoretracker in the top right corner of the screen... Oakland gets a touchdown overturned by replay one point at a time.

Wait Till Next Year

2006-11-24T08:06:00.000-05:00

This MLB offseason, we've seen the dawn of a new economy, with teams offering big-money, long-term contracts to players who aren't exactly hall of famers.

Juan Pierre, he of the career 727 OPS, got five years at $9 million from the Dodgers for his age 29-33 seasons. Alfonso Soriano's set to make $17 million a year through 2014. Sori was tremendous in 2006, but only two guys are signed through 2013: Soriano and David Wright. Wright will be 30 that year; Soriano will be 38. And now, Gary Matthews, Jr will get $10 million each season from the Angels while he's 32-36 , despite a mediocre career line of .263/.336/.419.

All of these guys are past their prime, yet their average yearly salary is but $2 million less than that of Albert Pujols! What's the one thing Pierre, Mathews and Soriano (not to mention Mark DeRosa and Nomar Garciaparra) have in common? They're all available now. Teams are spending like there's no tomorrow, busting their budgets on mid-level talent, but the smart GM's should wait till next year.

Looking at a list of players who will hit free agency in 2007, who would you rather have...

CF: Juan Pierre or Milton Bradley (pictured)? Bradley is a year younger than Pierre and has a career OPS over 50 points higher, 783 to 727. Bradley hit more home runs in 2006 than Pierre's hit his entire career.
CF: Gary Matthews Jr. or Andruw Jones? Andruw is almost three years younger and has a career OPS almost 100 points higher, 850 to 755.
CF(?): Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells? Sure, Soriano's a 40-40 guy, but Wells is more than a year younger, plays gold-glove defense in center, and has a career OPS of 828 to Soriano's 835.
1B: Nomar Garciaparra or Adam Dunn? Dunn is more than six years younger, has stayed injury-free, and his career OPS of 893 isn't far off Garciaparra's 907.
2B: Mark DeRosa or Marcus Giles? Giles is almost three years younger and has a career OPS of 809, compared to DeRosa's 735.

Other marquee 2007 free agents? Chris Carpenter, Carlos Guillen, Ichiro, Michael Young and Carlos Zambrano. If your team missed out on the Skyline Matsuzaka sweepstakes or has thus far failed to sign anyone, don't complain that your GM is sitting on his hands. Instead, praise him for saving money today so he can spend it next year, when a real free agent class hits the market.

So That's Why He Lost

2006-11-22T14:45:00.000-05:00

Derek Jeter lost the American League MVP to Justin Morneau of the Twins not because of some anti-Yankee bias, but because west coast voters couldn't spell his name right.

Here's the headline from today's San Jose Mercury News:

Jetyer settles for 2nd in MVP race

The Associated Press reports that if all Jeter votes were totaled with Jetyer votes, Morneau would have finished behind the Yankee shortstop.

In other news, the guy who voted for A.J. Pierzynski claims he voted for Jetyer too, but his spellcheck was broken.

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 12

2006-11-22T13:28:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 59-42 on such games (.584). Published on Get Untracked, we're 6-5 (.545). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, using today's New York Post Bettor's Guide for our lines:

DET +3 mia

tb +11 DAL

KC +1 den

giants -3 TEN

BUF +3 jax

pit +3 BAL

cin -3 CLE

MIN -6 ariz

STL -5.5 sf

no +3 ATL

car -4 WASH

NE -3 chi

gb +10 SEA

Football Field as Jumbotron

2006-11-21T00:50:00.000-05:00

What if the yellow first down line you see when you watch a football game on television was visible from your seat in the stands? The official turf provider to the Arena Football League (and provider of turf to two NFL teams) is called Sportexe, and they've got a patent that proposes to do that and more.

Forbes reported on the company, which is 40%-owned by Ravens owner Art Modell. Like the other major turf company, FieldTurf, Sportexe installs artificial surfaces made up of millions of individual blades of plastic grass, with rubber pellets underneath to simulate dirt. The patented technology places fiber optics inside each blade of grass. Each blade acts like a pixel in a computer monitor, working together to produce a larger image.

The first-down line on NFL broadcasts is really helpful for viewers, but I'm not enamored with graphics that literally create a "red zone" when the offense drives to the 20. And do we really need an on-field graphic that explains a kicker's accuracy from a certain distance - right as the kicker steps into the ball? The least appealing aspect of the new technology is the certainty that it will be used to run advertisements on the field itself, perhaps even between plays.

I'm all for the onward march of progress, but am often disappointed by the way broadcasters choose to use it. (Who's this week's White Castle Steamer of the Week? Text your vote to 86648 right now!!!) At least everybody attending the Super Bowl wouldn't have to worry about DVR-ing the commericals.

True Hoop Dance

2006-11-20T16:30:00.000-05:00

The Get Untracked Guide To Buying An HDTV For The Playoffs

2006-11-20T00:25:00.000-05:00

Last week, BDD @ KSK wrote "We're in mid-November now. The heart of the football season." His look at preparing for the playoffs was a bit different than what follows, but it inspired me to provide a guide on a subject I know a little bit about: High-Definition Television.

I was lucky enough to win a 26" LCD in a contest last July. That screen was good enough to show the quality difference between regular and HD programing, which must be seen to be appreciated. But I've been researching current models so I could upgrade to something I wouldn't need lasik to view from nine feet away. If you're still without an HD set, even if you own the 35" Sony Wega that was all the rage two years ago, it's time to get primed for the playoff run.

As with most things in life, so it is with buying an HDTV. There are two types of people: People who want a television that will last them the next ten years no matter the cost today, and people who want an HD set that's perfectly fine for now without breaking the bank. Let's break it down.

The future-proof HDTV: Sharp Aquos LC-52D62U - LCD ($3,200)
This is the sixth generation of Sharp's bestselling LCD panel, and the best choice for someone looking to buy an HDTV today. The screen size is huge, especially for an LCD. Historically, LCD manufacturers had trouble selling such a large display at a reasonable cost. A year ago, Sharp was selling its 65-inch LCD for $20,000. I'm sure you've seen ads for larger HDTVs, but most of those are "DLP" TVs, which are not flat panels like LCDs or plasmas; DLPs weigh twice as much and are more than twice as thick. That means you can't hang a DLP on the wall. The elegance of a beautiful HDTV hanging on the wall is a key selling point you can use on your wife or girlfriend. One estimate shows women driving flat screen purchases over DLPs about 60% of the time, so if you've got a lady in your life, a flat screen is the way to go.

Aside from the large screen, the technical specs of this LCD put it far and above anything else on the market at this price. This LCD has true 1080p. That number refers to the resolution on the screen and measures the pixel count of the display. You've been able to buy an HDTV with enough pixels to display 1080p for over a year, but HDTVs sold before... well... pretty much now, couldn't accept a 1080p input. This Aquos does accept 1080p, which means that a few years from now, when you have a bunch of HD-DVDs or Blu-Ray discs (e.g., Playstation 3), and when all HD content is broadcast in 1080p, your HDTV won't already be outdated.

Two more reasons this screen is so great... Its contrast ratio of 10,000:1 (basically, how dark it displays the color black; most LCDs can only get to dark gray) and its screen refresh rate of 4ms (how well it displays fast-moving action like sports). Compare those specs to other LCDs and you'll see why, if you've got the free cash to spend, the Sharp Aquos LC-52D62U is just about perfect.

Honorable Mention: Sony Bravia KDL-52XBR2 ($5,500)
This Sony gives you the same ability as the Aquos to accept true 1080p inputs, the same screen size, and a slightly inferior contrast ratio and refresh rate. The price premium gets you a beautiful glass bezel around the screen and BRAVIA Engine PRO image processing. Image processing is the method by which your rectangular HDTV makes square pictures look good, and it's useful for people who watch a lot of regular-definition programming or standard DVDs. But in five years the importance of image processing will be diminished because so little programming will be shown in a format other than 1080p. If money is no object, the Sony is the better HDTV, but the Aquos' value gives it the edge in this comparison.

The HDTV to enjoy without breaking the bank: Panasonic TH-42PX60U - Plasma ($1,300)

After all that talk about accepting 1080p inputs and viewing 1920 x 1080 pixels, why would I recommend a screen that can only display up to 720p (1366 x 768)? Because sports are broadcast today in either 720p - on ESPN/ABC and Fox - or in 1080i on CBS and NBC. Right now the only 1080p content available comes from new high-definition DVDs and the Playstation 3. If you don't have either of those, you can get by with a 720p tv for at least a couple more years. In fact, Fox claims that 720p is better than 1080i (not 1080p, mind you) for viewing sports.

Because the Panasonic is a plasma not an LCD, a 10,000:1 contrast ratio is to be expected; the color black looks great on this screen. A plasma is thin like an LCD, so you can hang it on the wall. The drawback to plasma, that an image can "burn in" to the screen, is something you should be aware of, but if you're careful, this plasma will give you a much better picture than comparably-priced LCD tvs.

As Drew wrote: "You have your marching orders." Now, just don't fall for the extended warranty!

Noooooooooooo!

2006-11-18T21:05:00.000-05:00

Gotta love the outstretched arms of Cal quarterback Nate Longshore as he watches the football roll sloooowly away after USC's Lawrence Jackson forced the fumble.

Simmons: Here's your answer!

2006-11-17T17:01:00.000-05:00

If you haven't read the Sports Guy's latest mailbag, you missed him asking his readers for a nickname for new Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Bill, How about Daisuke "Skyline" Matsuzaka. Here's what it has going for it:

1) It will remind everyone in New York, home of a world-famous skyline, that neither the Mets nor the Yankees, with all their cash, bid enough to get Matsuzaka.

2) It rolls off the tounge. Say it: Daisuke "Skyline" Matsuzaka.

3) Doesn't "Skyline" sound like an unbelievably expensive nickname that reflects the sky-high expectations Boston's gonna have for him?

4) Some geek made an excellent comparison of the pitcher to a car of the very same name.

The Wisdom of Crowds - NFL Week 11

2006-11-17T16:26:00.000-05:00

Before I started elementary school, my mother had taught me the basics of blackjack and 5-card stud. When I was 10, my father let me participate in the weekly NFL pool at his office. By age 14, I was running it. My friend, who I've known since first grade and who shall remain anonymous until he chooses an appropriate pseudonym, is quite the avid sports fan.

For more than 10 years, we've picked against each other on every NFL game. The number of games we agree on varies from week to week, but we've found that when we agree, we're correct to a significant degree. For the 2006 season, we're at 53-37 on such games (.589). Below are our Wisdom of Crowds picks for the week, as always using the Friday New York Post's Bettor's Guide for our lines:

JETS +7 chi

oak +9.5 KC

cin +3.5 NO

pit -3.5 CLE

atl +4 BAL

stl +7 CAR

HOU -2.5 buf

MIN +3.5 mia

ARIZ -2 det

SF +4.5 sea

DAL +1 ind

Dropouts: Albert Haynesworth

2006-11-17T01:23:00.000-05:00

You remember the guy from college who dropped out. Maybe he couldn't cut it academically. More likely, he found the required classes cutting into his previously-scheduled time for parties and sleep. You weren't surprised at what he got away with before leaving (or getting kicked out), but you knew he wouldn't cut it in the real world.

But college athletes are said to "declare early" or "go pro" when they don't finish school. When these guys screw up outside of their protected university environment, remember that we're talking about college dropouts. Maybe that's why the players introducing themselves on Monday Night Football often cite their high school rather than their college: it's the place they actually got their degree.

Name: Albert Haynesworth, III
College: University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Major: Education
College hijinks: Going after a teammate on the practice field with a metal pole.
Dropped out: After his junior season

NFL history books will forever celebrate The Catch and The Drive, but they hope to forget The Stomp. MJD did a fine job covering the suspension, and the Royal We made sure we knew what Keyshawn thought about all this. Because Haynesworth's expected to play on Sunday now that his five-game sabbatical is over, I point you to this 2002 Sporting News article about a certain defensive tackle prospect:

"Haynesworth, I honestly believe, will be a dominating player in this league," an AFC scout says, "if he can keep it all together upstairs." That always was the concern with Haynesworth--what was going on in his mind. But something happened to him before the 2001 season. It might have been the experience of becoming father to a son born last summer. Or it might have been the realization that time was running out on a career very few are afforded. Whatever it was, Albert Haynesworth found Albert Haynesworth. ... "I've matured," Haynesworth says. "I know what I have to do to be successful. It's a process."

Further maturity might be necessary to keep Haynesworth out of the Tyson Zone.

J.P. Ricciardi is no Billy Beane

2006-11-16T13:01:00.000-05:00

Reports out of Toronto have the Blue Jays signing Frank Thomas to a two-year, $20 million contract to serve as the team's designated hitter. While the money's been flowing freely since the free agent period began, the difference between Oakland's offer last winter (1 year for $500,000 plus $2.6 million in incentives Thomas earned) and Toronto's (reported) offer today is so vast that if I didn't know that J.P. Ricciardi was ~~Beane's top assistant~~ a well-regarded scout in Oakland during the early Moneyball years, you couldn't convince me that they ever worked together.

When the White Sox let Thomas walk as a free agent, Beane saw a player who had been injured for most of the previous two years, but who continued to put up excellent OBP and SLG when he was available. Thomas's traditional 2005 line looked awful to the non-sabermetrically inclined. A .219 average, 12 HR, and 26 RBI would be a great Hacking Mass line if accomplished over 500 at-bats.

But looking a little deeper, those 12 HR were hit in only 124 plate appearances. Adding three doubles (and, no kidding, zero triples), Thomas slugged .590 in 2005. To compare, Albert Pujols slugged .609 that year. Thomas also continued to display the batting eye that's made him a Hall of Famer, walking in 13% of plate appearances. So Beane made sure Thomas was healthy and signed him to a no-risk deal. If Thomas hit, great for the A's. If he didn't hit, Beane loses barely more than the minimum veteran salary. We know what happened next. Big Frank hit .270/.381/.545 in 466 ABs. He was Oakland's entire offense for much of the season, leading the team to the brink of the World Series.

Ricciardi, the Blue Jays GM since 2001, is taking the Anti-Beane approach to signing a slugger. Thomas is coming off a monster year, is far past his prime (the proposed two-year deal will cover his age-39 and -40 seasons), and is clearly not undervalued by the market, even if the Blue Jays are the market. Gary Sheffield, who's one year younger than the Big Hurt, will get $14 million a year from the Tigers in 2008 and 2009. And those in the know are panning that deal too.

Last offseason, when Ricciardi signed two pitchers, A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan, to big-money five year contracts, J.P.'s apologists argued that the cost was justified if the Blue Jays were to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox and that the scarcity of top pitchers made the contracts worthwhile. This year, after finishing in second place in the AL East, they'll say that Thomas is replacing a bunch of crappy designated hitters who combined for only 16 home runs all year, so the payout is necessary.

I don't buy it. Will Carroll won't give Thomas better than a yellow light in next year's Team Health Report. Toronto should be happy if Thomas's counting stats over the next two years equal his output in 2006 alone. Spending $10 million a year on a guy who may himself not hit 16 home runs next year? Maybe J.P. needs to re-read that little book Billy wrote.

Thanks to Will at BP for correcting my memory of J.P.'s job in Oakland. Seems like I need to re-read Moneyball too.

Cable Companies -2.5 NFL Network

2006-11-15T13:05:00.000-05:00

Next Thursday the NFL will offer up its traditional Thanksgiving games. The Detroit Lions have played every Thanksgiving since 1934 (except for the 1939-44 commercial break otherwise known as "World War II"), and the Dallas Cowboys made it a doubleheader starting in 1966. Does anybody reading this remember a Thanksgiving without exactly two NFL games?

So imagine my surprise when I learned that, starting this year, a third Thanksgiving game will be played. This year's night game will feature the Chiefs and Broncos. Thing is, you can't watch that contest unless your cable provider allows you to subscribe to the NFL Network. I should know: I live in the metro-New York area, where the two cable companies, Time Warner and Cablevision, don't make the channel available at any price. The battle's been brewing since July, when the NFL held the Thursday night package back from network bidders, leaving big bucks on the table in order to televise the games on its own cable channel.

The gist of the fight is as follows: Cable companies argue that the NFL Network is trying to gouge them with per-subscriber rates of 70 cents each, up from the channel's current price of about a quarter. The NFL Network responds that it has the country's most-watched programming, so the cable companies should pony up. For comparison's sake, ESPN is the most expensive channel for cable companies to provide, at nearly $3 per subsriber. As the parties head back to the bargaining table for one last week of negotiations, let's handicap this matchup.

Home Field Advantage

The game's to be played on the cable companies' turf because they own the infrastructure necessary to bring programming to your home. If everyone's home had an "unobstructed view of the Southern sky," we'd all have already switched to DirecTV to buy the Sunday Ticket package. As it stands, if you want sports programming, you pay for cable (and probably digital cable so you get the HD feed). It's the only way. Advantage: Cable companies. As we know, home field in the NFL is worth 3 points.

Talent

CBS and Fox paid $8 billion to broadcast the NFL through 2011 because pro football games are the most consistent ratings-generators in the television business (crappy MNF games like Panthers-Bucs or Seahawks-Raiders notwithstanding). The NFL Network knows it has a tremendous product, so it can realistically ask for high subscriber fees. However, cable companies don't want to pay (70 cents) * (all their subscribers) for a network most people wouldn't watch and that, oh yeah, happens to have a measly eight NFL games during only two months of the year. That's a solid argument. Slight advantage: Cable companies. This moves the line another point and a half.

Coaching

The cable companies have been fighting this battle for years. You might remember the fight over the Yankees' YES Network or the fight over the Mets' SportsNet New York. They've got a gameplan: They offer to put the channel on a special "sports tier" of programming for which subscribers may pay extra if they choose. This way the people who subscribe to cable for the Food Network or MTV or HBO don't have to pay extra for sports they're not going to watch. On the other side of the boardroom is Steve Bornstein. He used to run ESPN, so he knows how important sports are to people like you and me. He'll use the time-tested strategy pioneered by George Steinbrenner and the YES lawyers - people really care about watching this stuff, so you better give it to them. That tactic works if viewers can't see 90% of a team's games over six months of a baseball season, but I'm not sure it'll work for a random slate of eight NFL games. Slight advantage: Cable companies. The line moves one more point.

The Mob

I'm not referring to the Gambino crime family or point-shaving, though the pun was intended. I mean the dirty, unwashed public, otherwise known as the millions of television viewers who pay the subscriber fees keeping cable companies in business. The great unknown is how much of a stink people like us will make. When Cablevision refused to carry the Mets' regional network, SNY, so many Mets fans complained that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg inserted himself into the negotiation and the parties eventually reached a compromise. There's precedent for public opinion working hard against the cable companies, especially since each cable company is a monopoly in its viewing area. Advantage: NFL Network, but it's not the lock that you had with local baseball teams. My guess is that there's enough football on free tv and ESPN this time of year that those eight NFL games might not be missed. Move the line three points the other way.

Check my math, but totaling the above puts the cable companies as 2.5-point favorites going into this last week. I think you'll get the chance to watch the NFL Network games, but you'll probably have to pay for the special sports tier. Hell, Cablevision doesn't even offer ESPN2-HD on basic digital cable, so I don't see Cablevision handing the NFL Network a coveted basic cable spot. At least the NFL can rest assured that they can keep running their float in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is a Nissan Skyline GT-R

2006-11-14T23:31:00.000-05:00

Everyone seems blown away by the fact that the Red Sox just bid $51 million for the exclusive right to negotiate a contract with Japanese superstar pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Setting aside the question of how good he's going to be, let me explain why the new Boston hurler is merely a metaphor for the fine ride to the left, the 2008 Nissan Skyline GT-R.

It's only been available in Japan.

We Americans have trouble looking past our borders (unless we're at war or trying to build a fence to keep out Mexicans). Imagine if Ferraris weren't sold in the U.S. They might have the same cachet and name recognition, but I doubt it. The Skyline GT-R has only been sold as a right-hand drive model, so it's never made its way over here. Matsuzaka has pitched his entire career in the Japanese Pacific League, that country's equivalent of our MLB. (He never pitched in the minor leagues.) So you hadn't heard of Matsuzaka before ESPN started hyping him. That doesn't mean he didn't exist.

The statistics are undeniable.

Over the last four years, Matsuzaka's put up numbers in the Pacific League that compare to the 2003-2006 version of Roger Clemens, the 2004 NL Cy Young winner and 2005 ERA champ (1.87!). The Skyline GT-R will have a 450-horsepower twin-turbo V6 driving the rear wheels and a suspension tuned by Lotus. That's about 100 more horses than the BMW 650i.

It's been around a really long time.

Even though it's never been brought to American shores, the Skyline GT-R has actually been around since 1969. That's not as old as the Corvette, which debuted in 1953, but it's only five years younger than the Mustang, a car Ford just redesigned with retro styling cues. Matsuzaka has been a national hero in Japan since 1998, when he threw 250 pitches to notch the win in a quarterfinal game of the Japanese high school baseball tournament (think March Madness, now mulitply national interest by 17). In the semi, Matsuzaka played the outfield but got a save. In the final, he threw a freakin' no-hitter. The next year, he won the rookie of the year as a 19-year-old in the Japanese major leagues. Dwight Gooden was 20 when he won the NL award in 1985.

It opens up an entirely new market.

Sure, the Red Sox need a quality starter after their 2006 rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wakefield and Wells didn't work out. Of course, Boston's ultrahigh bid was designed to fend off the Yankees. But more than anything else, this deal is about generating Japanese interest in the Red Sox. Of course there are stadium advertisements in the Bronx and Seattle, where Hideki Matsui and Ichiro! play, respectively. But have you noticed the Japanese ads in Toronto? The Yankees come through less than 20 times a year, but some company's paid to get its name in Skydome (or whatever they're calling it these days) just so it can be televised on the Yankee games broadcast back in Japan. Boston wants a piece of that, no doubt.

The same goes for the Skyline GT-R. Nissan sees an opportunity to get in on the luxury sport coupe market dominated by the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar and Porsche. And note that the Skyline will be sold as a Nissan not an Infiniti (Nissan's upscale brand), as Nissan looks for a "halo car" to bring deeper pockets into its showrooms.

It's expensive, but worth it.

The MSRP on a z06 Corvette (the exclusive, high-powered version) is $70,000. Nissan plans to price the Skyline GT-R at $65,000. For those with the cash, the 2008 model will outperform the Z06 and a Porsche 911 Turbo while lending the exclusivity that an entirely new car can bring.

When the Sox sign Matsuzaka to the five-year, $75 million contract people expect Scott Boras to negotiate, the pitcher's total cost including the bid will be the same $25 million/year that everyone's favorite punching bag Alex Rodriguez makes with the Yankees. There's a reason A-Rod earned such a large contract: He was a Gold Glove-quality shortstop with unprecedented hitting skills (for the position) coming into his prime. Despite complaints about Rodriguez's lack of "clutchness," the numbers he's put up each year justify his high salary. Middle infielders - even if the Yankees play him at 3B - who hit 35+ home runs every year are not widely available. The Red Sox see Matsuzaka the same way. He's a Cy-Young quality pitcher just entering his prime, with the added bonus of a marketing gold mine to come.

Do I wish the Mets, who finished second with a bid of $39 to $40 million, had won Matsuzaka instead? Yes. Would I rather have a new Skyline GT-R parked in my garage? Yeah, I think I would.

Get Untracked

2006-11-14T13:29:00.000-05:00

Let's get one thing straight. The most unfortunate sports broadcasting development over the last ten years is not Fox's glowing hockey puck, Fox's robot that "warms up" during sponsorship breaks, or Fox's insistence that Tim McCarver and Tony Siragusa are world-class analysts. None of those are as irritating as an announcer telling us that an underperforming player or team needs to "get untracked"

These play-by-play and color men have the best intentions. We know they mean to say "on track." Somewhere along the line, however, it's become acceptable to mangle the phrase into its current incarnation. Common Errors in English explains it this way: "When things begin running smoothly and successfully, they get “on track.” Some people oddly substitute “untracked” for this expression, perhaps thinking that to be “tracked” is to be stuck in a rut."

I don't think that's it. These announcers aren't thinking, "Wow, the Buzzsaw that is the Arizona Cardinals sure is tracked. Dennis Green needs to get them untracked." Most likely, an announcer made the error unwittingly and the director/producer/other guy in the booth didn't offer a correction or call him on it. So each next time someone said "get untracked," there was a bit more precedent for letting it slide. Kind of like Al Michaels describing an injured tailback as "out with a knee."

I can't point an accusatory finger at the first mover for "get untracked," but I wouldn't be surprised if the offending party was a former athlete; therein lies the perfect storm of less-than-comprehensive vocabulary and enough status that nobody will make fun of him. The phenomenon probably began during the time Marv Albert was out of work, because Marv's broadcast partner wouldn't have gotten away with it. Could you imagine how Marv would have responded to Matt Guokas during an NBA on NBC telecast?

Matt: John Starks has yet to get untracked this afternoon.
Marv: Matt, we need to talk this over! That's not what you had in mind!

Anyway, welcome to the site, and here's hoping the name will, in a few years, be as obsolete as a certain ex-Cardinals catcher.